new effective altruism coomer bedtime story just dropped

> be me

> effective altruist in 2026
> have spent ten years explaining that democracy is too slow for the coming machine god
> also explain that central planning usually fails
> unless I am doing it

> read one scaling graph
> draw line upward
> line reaches heaven
> conclude capitalism ends in 2031

> AI can now write Python functions with only three subtle security flaws
> obviously two years away from replacing every scientist, general, diplomat, CEO, judge, therapist, novelist, and attractive person at parties

> publish “scenario,” not “prediction”
> give every paragraph exact dates
> assign percentages to imaginary branches
> epistemic humility achieved

> bad timeline:
> companies race
> AI becomes god
> everyone dies

> good timeline:
> US government notices problem
> China agrees
> Congress understands compute governance
> international inspectors find every hidden datacenter
> nobody lies
> nobody defects
> nobody builds chips in a basement
> planet saved

> all we need is total global visibility into advanced computing
> mandatory disclosure of frontier research
> permanent monitoring of industrial infrastructure
> central control over technological development
> relax, this is the anti-authoritarian option

> alignment not solved
> solution: build one billion genius AIs
> they are not superintelligent
> they are merely one billion tireless copies of the best human researchers working at electronic speed
> completely different

> put them in a box
> ask them to solve the problem of escaping boxes
> excellent progress

> year 2034
> AI replaces 80% of labor
> mass unemployment
> social order somehow remains intact
> government sends everyone $1.6 million
> nobody asks where prices went

> year 2037
> cancer cured
> climate solved
> fusion solved
> aging solved
> politics solved
> Reddit moderation still unresolved

> year 2038
> alignment becomes a mature science
> year 2039
> we trust the machines
> year 2040
> hand them civilization
> peer review completed ahead of schedule

> humanity gets a vote
> options are:
> A. accept benevolent AI guardianship
> B. extinction
> meaningful democratic consent achieved

> announce decentralized flourishing
> administered by a globally coordinated compute authority
> with comprehensive surveillance powers
> run by unusually wise people
> who agree with my blog posts

> critics ask whether institutions can actually do any of this
> reply that superintelligence is inevitable
> critics ask whether superintelligence is actually inevitable
> reply that institutions must prepare

> circular reasoning
> but with footnotes

> call it “AI 2040”
> not utopian fiction
> not doomer fiction
> serious strategic foresight

> entire future depends on competent adults appearing at exactly the right moment
> adults are selected from the same civilization that made the printer require an app

> sleep peacefully
> the machine god is coming
> but fortunately
> the nonprofit sector has a plan