A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of the Central Bank of Iran.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preambleThe so-called "Economic D-Day" is set to start this week, which is the term trotted out by the US to describe what it regards as the most crushing sanctions ever unveiled in all of human history against a foreign state. Up to me writing this, nobody appears to have many guesses as to what precisely this would entail, but a confirmed aspect is secondary sanctions - i.e. the sanctioning of any country that does business with Iran. China is Iran's largest trading partner, and has previously explicitly ordered their oil/refining companies to keep receiving and processing Iranian oil regardless of US sanctions. Assuming China maintains this relationship, and the ever-sanctioned Russia does likewise, it's difficult to see how these sanctions could not only 1) be significantly more effective than the current sanctions on Iran, which are very substantial and yet are being successfully sidestepped and mitigated, albeit at a meaningful cost to Iran's citizens, and 2) outright bring Iran to a position of surrender when it is in the midst of an existential war. The only conceivable way would be if the US did genuinely sanction China in response, which even the US, in this phase of baffling idiocy, is not yet so stupid as to attempt. Other suggestions I've seen is that the sanctions aren't so much about trying to keep China away as much as stopping the Gulf states from ever economically, politically, and indeed militarily reconciling with Iran; essentially saying "At the end of this war, you may not be on our side, but you certainly won't be on Iran's either."

Nonetheless, ever since Iran militarily proved themselves back in March and April, and, in particular, their missile cities proved effectively indestructible, I and many others came to the conclusion that the only way to destroy Iran would be some kind of internal political or economic crisis - likely both, going hand-in-hand - and it appears that US war planners now agree. A resumption of missile fire is still plenty possible, mind, but if I was the US, it would be in support of that hypothetical internal crisis, were it ever to start, rather than putting the cart before the horse. Therefore, one does have to take the threat of some kind of overwhelming economic offensive at least a little seriously, simply because it's the only non-nuclear vector left that has even the vaguest possibility of success. From all the analysts I take seriously, I'm getting signals that trend towards optimism that Iran will survive whatever the Bessents of the world can cook up; however, mere survival should not be Iran's medium/long term goal. Imaginary tankers transiting Hormuz notwithstanding, and with global diesel prices now skyrocketing notwithstanding, it's still unclear to me what the end result would be if Iran and the US simply decided to stop fighting from now on and apply maximum sanctions/energy disruption for weeks, months, or even years on end. Would China eventually pressure Iran to make concessions, for example? Could a critical portion of Iran's population, or a segment of the Iranian bourgeoisie, be tempted to try and overthrow the government to end the pain, long before the economy truly internally collapsed?

That's likely why, in response to the proposed sanctions on Iran, there have been signals coming out of the country (as always, hard to verify in the fog of invented/misattributed statements and exaggerations) that Iran could counterstrike by attacking US economic interests in the region - which, if correctly done, sounds much better to me than simply sitting there with thousands of missiles not being fired while you gradually bleed out over the medium term, hoping that the other guy will bleed out first. This would be a pretty profound step for Iran, though. Aside from maintaining the Hormuz blockade, they have always held the (somewhat strategically dubious) "moral high ground" of being the guy to respond to military attacks, perhaps due to an anxiety of being seen as a warmonger either internally or in countries throughout the world, not least their major allies.

So after all that bloviating, I have little more to offer than a shrug in terms of my predictions about what comes next.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] 67 points 8 hours ago* (6 children)

ypg-brace helicopter go down, mr. trump trump-drenched https://archive.ph/hlvpG

US Army attack helicopters crashing at historically high rate amid mechanical issues

The US Army’s Apache helicopters are crashing at a historically high rate amid a widespread problem with the model’s transmission, according to a CNN analysis of military accident data.

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The helicopter type has experienced five major crashes since October, and a deadly mishap earlier this month in Texas killed two soldiers, sparked a wildfire and led the Army to temporarily bar Apache pilots from conducting routine training flights. With that crash, fiscal year 2026 is on pace to be the second worst for Apache flight accidents since a new model of the AH-64 was rolled out in 2011. The Army announced that the pause in training flights, which exempted units deployed to the Middle East, ended Wednesday. This year’s rate of major Apache crashes — known as Class A mishaps in Army parlance, meant to represent any accident that kills or permanently disables a person or results in the loss of an aircraft or $2.5 million in damage — surpasses typical years and rivals that of the service’s most severe rate in the 2024 fiscal year, according to CNN’s review of data. The accident rate is based on the number of incidents compared to the total hours the aircraft spent flying, calculated using data that has been publicly released and flight hour estimates for the current year provided to CNN by the Army. In Fiscal year 2024 there were nine major Apache crashes amid a spike in accidents across all Army helicopter models. Army leaders ordered a special safety training initiative that year and attributed the accidents to human errors stemming from decreased experience among its pilots and an increase in training intensity and complexity after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine inspired a new focus on preparing for major conflicts.

But the causes of this year’s spike are murkier. The July issue of an official Army flight safety newsletter said that just over half of this year’s Apache accidents, including more minor incidents, are primarily attributable to human error. It’s unclear how many of the most-severe crashes are due to equipment failures, but the magazine said that “a catastrophic transmission failure was noted in one Class A mishap.” CNN estimated this year’s major Apache crash rate to be approximately 6.24 per every 100,000 flying hours. Thus far in fiscal year 2026, five Class A flight mishaps involving the attack helicopter have occurred. The Apache, through August 15, had flown approximately 80,171 hours. That number combines 42,971 hours through March 31 that were listed in the internal Army safety newsletter and an estimate provided to CNN by an Army safety spokesperson that pilots had logged approximately 37,200 additional flight hours through August 15. Fiscal year 2024, by comparison, had a rate of 7.02 major crashes per 100,000 hours for the aircraft.

The E-model Apache, introduced in 2011, has faced significant problems this year with its transmission that could knock out the aircraft’s tail rotor, electrical power and hydraulics, according to a pair of internal safety messages obtained by CNN. The loss of those systems can put a helicopter into a sudden spin and potentially knock out its flight controls. As of mid-July, the cause of the problems remained “under investigation,” according to a safety message released at the time. Army spokesperson Maj. Montrell Russell declined to answer questions regarding the transmission investigation or disclose any “preliminary findings” regarding the causes of this month’s deadly Texas crash at Fort Hood. “We express our deep sadness over the loss of the two Soldiers near Fort Hood,” Russell said in a statement to CNN. He said that “special controls and release protections” prevent the service from providing detailed “technical aviation information,” to include how many of this year’s crashes are related to the helicopters’ transmission. The initial April safety message, first reported by trade publication Defense One, identified 70 potentially faulty transmissions and ordered all units to stop flying affected Apaches pending repair. A follow-up message sent in mid-July said the root cause remains “under investigation” and added 10 more suspect transmissions to the no-fly list. The two safety messages combined to impact roughly a tenth of the Army’s attack helicopter fleet. In early June, an Army official told CNN that all affected Apaches remained grounded, and the Army did not answer CNN’s questions about how many, if any, have returned to flight since then.

Meanwhile, the Apache’s transmission issues continue to be mentioned in Army flight documents. CNN obtained an August 14 internal Army order that formally cited the two transmission safety messages in its references for the service’s training flight pause after the Texas crash. Russell cautioned that “including these messages in safety reviews does not imply causation for any individual mishap.” The Apache’s manufacturer, Boeing, has deployed teams to Army maintenance depots to assist with inspecting and fixing the transmissions, according to the Army order. The Army and Boeing did not answer questions on how they identified the potentially faulty parts. A Boeing spokesperson confirmed to CNN that the company is “supporting the U.S. Army’s investigation to ensure the operational readiness and safety of any affected aircraft,” but referred additional questions to the Army.

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