I expect no-longer-obviously silly movies to be doable within two years, right now it's going slower than I expected in January 2026 because the frontier labs are no longer competing over having the best video generator, like they were when we had Sora2 and Veo 3.1.
And WHY are they no longer competing over this? Tell me. Could it be that its incredibly expensive to make somthing that nobody wants except fraudsters, and that further improvement via the kind of ML we do just produces exponentially diminishing returns for ever increasing huge amounts of effort and they realized it's not worth it?
Just like they will never understand that the openAI 'pause' for 'security and alignment' is a convenient excuse for the fact that they have no goddamned money and are on a treadmill to oblivion.