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Probability (thelemmy.club)
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[-] alessandro@lemmy.ca 4 points 1 day ago

Can't be 25% = it could be correct if the "other 25%" was 24 or 26 (or even 25.000001). Since there are two 25%, the 25% change is raised, nullify the 25% prediction. Can't be 50%, because there are other two different options in addition to fifty in fifty-fifty; so 50% (or fifty-fifty) don't exist as option.

Can't be 0%, because 0% is a very specific assertion that can't ever be true due to paradox (if you "guessed", you nailed it 100%)

Result: malformed question, no one is valid... The best you can have is 25%, which is still wrong, but I thing is the closer to approximate. Ideally the question would reform as:

Option A: 25% Option B: 50% Option C: 0%

=33.3~%

[-] Simulation6@sopuli.xyz 2 points 1 day ago

Answer can be a,b,c or d. So could be a or d. Pick one at random and you have a 50% chance.

this post was submitted on 06 Aug 2026
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