Yeah, in the mid 90s the world was so optimistic about Russia, and frankly reassured about the nukes going to Russia, which was believed to be the more confidently governed nation state.

Everyone was still riding high on the cold war seemingly coming to a close.

I think he addressed it clearly enough. Russia invading Ukraine has no risk of Ukraine starting a nuclear war. Why? Because Ukraine does not have nukes.

A country like Russia, if facing an existential threat, has the capacity and incentive to use nuclear weapons. Why? Because they have nukes.

This is why even the US had hesitations last year (same time this Starlink episode happened) about sending certain types of weapons to Ukraine - out of fear of nuclear escalation. Now that Ukraine has drone striked Russian territory a few times it seems obvious because nuclear escalation hasn't happened... but Musk was not alone in thinking this. Remember that US refused to give all sorts of weaponry at first. They didn't want to give fighters jets, tanks, etc.