YouTube would lose a billion annually early on as they expanded infrastructure to keep up with massive demand 🤷‍♀️

They figured it out eventually, all they had to do was enshittify everything.

Tell me you don't know nothing about business without telling me you don't know nothing about business.

No no stop. I know what you're thinking. You don't, relax. Take it easy.

Spotify didn't start seeing yearly profits until 2024.

Twitter didn't see profits in a single quarter until 12 years after they started. And only went 2 years with actual profits from inception until they were bought out.

Took YouTube 9 years before they saw any profits.

Point being. It's very normal for big tech companies to not make money for quite some time. OpenAI isn't alone. It's the rule rather than the exception.

Will they go tits up? I don't know. Time will tell. But my guess is that investors will keep pumping in money for at least another 10 years.

No they're not.

The best Chinese models are good, but they're resoundingly outclassed by the likes of Claude.

And that's not to mention the Chinese models are trained off the American models, i.e. they can't exist without the American ones being developed first.

As long as they're all just LLMs with the same design im not sure they'll get a moat.

Someone will likely need to depart from the current thought process and come up with something new that is the next leap, but also not have how it works leak.

Like the next big thing after transformers, before anyone else catches on. Im sure they all have people researching new ideas.

I mean, no software developer is going to go back to completely not using LLMs after Claude Code.

If you think AI is just “chat boxes” then you really need to just stay out of any and all AI discussions.

You need to actually use it and understand what it does before you clown on.

Try vibe coding a hello world project with the Opus models and Claude code. It's not perfect by any stretch, but to argue it has no use case is absurd.

The amount of money that's been invested in this will require 100 million people to pay $10,000 per year so they can have a 5% return on investment.

Who is actually going to be paying that kind of money for AI services? Has anyone ever actually worked for a company before? You need to go through layers of red tape to requisition a new office chair. Are companies actually going to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars per year for AI?

I've asked people that have used AI to alter photos (currently free to them, paid for by investors) how much they'd for such a service. Nothing, just would leave the photo as-is. There's a big market for "free AI" but the market for AI where the users pay the cost + profit margin is a small fraction of that.

So why is this stuff valued in the trillions? Simply because the greater fool will buy shares so line goes up. Once the pension funds buy in, then a bunch of billionaires get together and short it simultaneously. They'll make money and everyone else loses. That's how it worked in the dot com bubble, there's no reason to expect it will go any differently for AI.

Of course you might have gotten confused because there's real tech in the story. Same as there was in the dot com bubble. We're having this conversation on the internet right now. But seeing tech, using the tech doesn't mean the tech isn't overvalued. One of the "ridiculous" claims of the dot com bubble was that you'd be able to pet food over the internet. Today we most definitely can do that. Just because that eventually proven correct, it didn't make sense in 1999, and having billions invested in something that wouldn't have results for more than a decade isn't a good investment. Equipment depreciates, and high-tech equipment depreciates rapidly. Buying networking equipment for an online retailer ten years before the logistics needed are in place is just throwing away money.

Buying GPUs before there's a data center built to put them is throwing away money. Facebook is putting them in tents, Samsung wants to put them on ships. Obviously these GPUs aren't going to last long operating in these conditions, but it'll take years before there's data centers built and even longer before there's enough power generation needed to run them. They're just milking every last dollar from investors by doing these things.

Many of the things promised are straight up lies (Halting Problem, anyone?) and it'll be years before the the infrastructure is built. Right now they're maxing the hype and making as much as they can before the bubble bursts. And why not? Fraud is effectively decriminalized in the US.