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this post was submitted on 10 May 2026
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TechTakes
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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He was also perplexed that a prediction-market bet on "did COVID-19 come from a lab?" has declined from 85% yes in 2023 to 27% yes. If you click through you see its a bet on Manifold so bettors are rats and fellow travellers. Rationalists have spent $46,714 of real US dollars buying play money to bet on this.
That actually seems like the prediction market sort of did its job in this case? I mean, 27% yes is still too high, but actually changing in response to real evidence is much better than my low low expectations for prediction markets. It seems like he should take his own advice and actually take the prediction market seriously in this case.
And I think the odds of "yes" started out high because someone best $10-20k only to withdraw it after reading the ACX post. Most people can't afford to invest thousands of dollars in a bet that may never be resolved.