Europe did not turn off Russian gas because they expected Russia to fold within a few months. They were confident that their sanctions were going to work.

So you're saying that not only was everyone in the West convinced, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that mere sanctions would cripple Russia, but also that those sanctions wouldn't even have to include gas?? That's even more absurd than I thought. I'm absolutely baffled at why you think Western leaders have such a ridiculously inflated view of the power of sanctions, when there's such a more reasonable explanation, that they were simply exaggerating the power of sanctions for the people watching at home.

Here’s what George Soros said in May 2022:

I don't care what he said. This whole time I've been explaining to you why you can't just take quotes at face value, and here you're just posting another quote and taking it at face value, and this time not even from a policy maker. People can confess to murder and still turn out to be innocent. You have to examine why they're saying it. In this case he's saying sanctions will work, as I have explained several times, because he supports them and wants to sell people on them, it tells us nothing about his actual beliefs. People in positions of power generally make public statements because of a rational calculus of what effect that statement will have, whether they think it's true or not is irrelevant. This is why you have to look at actions and interests and not just statements.

This is a very common assumption even in mainstream media

You're assuming that what's said in the media is the same reasoning and calculus that's happening behind closed doors. As I said, statements to the public are made based on political calculus, not actual beliefs. The reality is that the West's grip has been slipping even with smaller countries due to Chinese investment, which is why I find it completely implausible that Western policymakers simply didn't consider that Russia could just trade with China and India.

Assume for a moment that I'm correct, and that nobody actually expected sanctions to work. What consequences have any of them faced for saying that they would? None whatsoever. But saying they'd work helped build support for them. So there's a benefit to saying it an no drawback to saying it, so of course they're going to say it. What's so hard to understand about that?

Where did I ever say that?

It's literally your whole narrative!

but that does not mean their economy is stronger than Europe’s.

I never claimed you said anything like that.

It simply means that the global supply chain is far more complex than the European policymakers drafting the sanctions had anticipated

Right, because you think that they're unbelievably stupid and naive (yet at the same time managing to orchestrate a complicated long-term plot). Did they just not know that China exists? It's absurd to think that they wouldn't consider this possibility.

Here's the points that I think you're being fundamentally unreasonable about:

1. Taking politicians' words at face value as a reflection of genuine belief, instead of critically examining the calculus of why they would say something

2. Claiming that the idea that sanctions alone (not even including gas) would cripple Russia is anything but an absurd and blatantly unrealistic fantasy sold to the masses, to the point that policy-makers not only believed it but even relied on it as a lynchpin to their plans.

3. Believing an oversimplified narrative designed to make Russia look good over a more realistic narrative based on facts and class analysis, which still makes Russia look pretty good.

To the third point, I mean, come on. I can't count the number of cartoons I've seen where the bad guy underestimates the protagonist only for the protagonist to prove their worth. This is exactly the kind of simple narrative about empowerment and resiliance that I'd expect any country to put out during war-time. But Russia is a geopolitical entity and not a shonen character. Both it and it's rivals are composed of various competing interests acting more or less rationally. It's tiring to argue with this nonsense, Merkel does not control Ukraine and is not always in agreement with the US, and she also doesn't reveal her schemes to the hero in a villainous monologue to the hero just for shits and giggles.

I guess we're at an impasse, your narrative seems completely unreasonable to me, while it seems mine seems completely unreasonable to you. I think that our methods of examining the situation and drawing conclusion are completely different and irreconcilable, yours relies far too heavily on quotes, which I find unreliable.