this post was submitted on 26 Aug 2023
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GenZedong
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I am pretty confident that neither Putin nor any official branch of the Russian government had anything to do with it, for multiple reasons that other commentators have already laid out at length in what has been written about this online. It wouldn't make sense for them to do it this way or at this specific time.
Could it be rogue elements in the Russian military or intelligence with some personal vendetta or acting in the misguided belief that this is what Putin would want or what is best for Russia? Maybe. Could even be internal Wagner resentment towards the leadership.
But if i had to bet i would still say the likeliest culprits are forces outside of Russia. Ukraine's SBU are the most obvious suspects since they have both a history of assassinations and a deep hatred of Wagner which they blame for their loss of Bakhmut.
However i also wouldn't be surprised if the West (French/British?) had a hand in this, though if they thought that by doing this they could create some instability in Russia, bad PR for Putin, or somehow hamper Wagner operations in Africa or elsewhere i think they miscalculated.
Not only did Wagner almost certainly have contingency plans for this sort of situation, but if anything this will just drive Wagner into an even quicker integration with the official Russian military, they will appoint new management and whatever previous contracts they had with various countries will continue smoothly.
I lean this way myself now