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AI coders think they’re 20% faster — but they’re actually 19% slower
(pivot-to-ai.com)
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One interesting feature in this paper is that the programmers who used LLMs thought they were faster, they estimated it was saving about 20% of the time it would have taken without LLMs. I think that's a clear sign that you shouldn't trust your gut about how much time LLMs save you, you should definitely try to measure it.
The study did find a correlation between prior experience and performance. One of the developers who showed a positive speedup with AI was the one with the most previous experience using Cursor (over 50 hours).