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When will the next "E.T." moment happen in the industry?
(lemmy.dbzer0.com)
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The Atari crash was just Atari. In North America - and only North America, things were quite different elsewhere in the world - Atari was virtually the entire game industry at the time, but that isn't the case today.
We already do see individual developers and publishers crash the way Atari did. All the time. But for every flop, there are a dozen hits. The industry is big, and it is not a monolith. And the audience is far far far larger. People will always be buying games. It's not possible for the entire industry to crash the way Atari did.
It'd be like expecting the entire music industry, movie industry, or book industry to crash.
Which can happen.
Theaters sure aren't doing well. Movies soldier on without them, but with vanishing distinction from any other form of streaming video. When the superhero genre wanes, it might not be because some other bajillion-dollar trend overtook it. People can just stop caring enough to justify budgets with nine digits. What comes after that is a fallow period. Many large investments fail, capital dries up, a few pricks make headlines for declaring 'movies are over.'
There's been several times that making money on music was not a reliable business model. The industry flipped out about piracy... on cassettes, and then also when MP3s came along. Fortunately they solved that through commercial streaming services which also don't pay artists anything. And now you can install a program that invents and records pop songs, just for you, in about as long as it takes to play them.
Even in '83, it's not like Atari died. They had two more consoles that decade, plus a handheld. They marched on into the 1990s and then died. The crash simply meant a whole form of entertainment was no longer an expected feature in people's lives.
Subscription MMOs have dwindled. The RTS genre crashed.
But none of those are entire industries crashing. Audiences change, media changes how it targets audiences, business models change, but the medium still lives.
Again, not even Atari itself went away entirely. A crash means line go down. It's not a sudden and definite end.