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this post was submitted on 01 Jun 2025
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Space Weather
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Welcome to Space Weather
Space weather is a branch of space physics and aeronomy, or heliophysics, concerned with the varying conditions within the Solar System and its heliosphere. This includes the effects of the solar wind, especially on the Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere, and exosphere. Though physically distinct, space weather is analogous to the terrestrial weather of Earth's atmosphere (troposphere and stratosphere). The term "space weather" was first used in the 1950s and popularized in the 1990s. Later, it prompted research into "space climate", the large-scale and long-term patterns of space weather.
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So in general, it's satellite observations (SOHO, STEREO) for initial predictions and observations of CMEs***. CMEs are constantly happening, but in every direction, not just at us. If one is pointed at us, once the initial shock hits the L1 point* it's more predictable. That's where satellites like ACE and DSCOVR sit about 1.5 million kilometers upstream from Earth, giving us roughly 15-60 minutes of warning once a solar wind disturbance arrives there.
The shock models and reports look like this:
The flux ropes** which bring the spectacular shows come after. These twisted magnetic field structures in coronal mass ejections (CMEs) produce some of the most dramatic aurora displays when they interact with Earth's magnetosphere in just the right way. Conditions like solar wind speeds, etc. affect visibility as well.
Before the L1 point it's a lot of high level guess work and modelling including ground-based solar observations and magnetometer networks, but those are more important after L1. The ground based stuff are some of the first metrics you see on the Solar Weather dashboard. After the L1 point, though, it's countdown time for the good ones. The app sends out alerts for big ones like this.
A caveat, space weather is one of those fields where there is a bit of an art to the science... The sun is a bit like a cat, we haven't quite figured out all of it's quirks and it doesn't always do what we expect it to do.
* https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagrange_point
** https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flux_tube https://www.nasa.gov/image-article/flux-ropes-sun/
*** https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection
Thanks a lot! I can understand some of what I am looking at now.
I would like to find out if there are associated phenomena that I might be able to notice using software-defined radio. Maybe some time I can chase after an aurora, but this time I am unprepared.
You've still got time! Between 10pm and 2am are the golden hours for this sort of thing, but look north as it gets dark. Use your phone camera with a long exposure to check. :) I think we may still be quite lucky. Beware of a lot of the posts in real time there, nobody knows what's going to happen until the L1, remember, so it's a lot of guesswork! It's kind of half the fun is trying to figure out what is going on with it. The stars have to align just right, pun intended.
I'm living in Amsterdam at the moment, in a city environment. From what I have found, I would need to travel to the north of the Netherlands to have a good chance of seeing something. A difficult trip to improvise on a Sunday night. Hopefully when the next opportunity arises I will know enough to appreciate it more deeply.
The joy of aurora hunting:
Stay up until 3:30 the other night. When it exploded again it gave a giant middle finger to Europe:
Noonish the next day:
And into the eve:
But lo, the density died and the pillars are diffused. My friend caught a little bit on the horizon in camera. I saw a little bit of red but nothing stunning. Very faint. You can just see the pink on the horizon. This is facing north.
Aahh, that's rough 😅
Nice! Is this your first time seeing it, or is this something that you get to attempt often?
Oct 10, 2024, just after midnight right above our little town!
Nah, I am always checking in, especially considering we are arount the Solar Maximum. I believe that the best shows come as it winds down iirc. I am in southern England, and we get it's hazy glow more often than people realise. :) I have caught a good show here before, though. I'll dig up pics from last year in a bit. I get alerts so I am always waiting for it.