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Murders in Jamaica drop but activists alarmed at rise in fatal police shootings (www.theguardian.com)

submitted 4 days ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

6 comments fedilink hide all child comments

“April 2025 has marked another historic milestone. For the second time this year, we have recorded the lowest number of murders in over two decades,” Dr Kevin Blake, the police commissioner, said in a statement.

According to Blake, compared to the same period last year, between January and April, there has been an 18% decline in overall major crimes, and murders are down by 37%.

But the human rights group Jamaican for Justice (JFJ) has raised concerns about a corresponding “significant and alarming increase” in fatal police shootings in the same period.

According to Jamaica’s police complaints authority, the Independent Commission of Investigations (Indecom), 111 people were fatally shot by security forces between January and April 2025, compared 44 in the same period last year – a 152% increase.

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 4 days ago (3 children)

2024 homicide rate was ~40.1 per 100,000. Jamaica population is ~2.8 million so ~1100 murders/year. 37% decrease in homicides is ~420/year. Increase in police killings is 67.

Assuming you can attribute the change totally to whatever the police are doing (almost certainly not the reality) that puts the situation as a 1:6 trolley problem.

Is it an improvement? Technically yes, but imagine anything else working that way and it should be pretty obvious the JFJ is right that this is insane.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 days ago (2 children)

I'd be interested in more long term effects. Are these increased police killings actually getting to people that might have murdered in the future? If that was the goal I'd have predicted an increase in police killings like this is showing. Then both numbers would start to drop at a rate faster than they had been.

Not that I'm condoning the practice, I just wouldn't chalk it up to a "failure" after such a short time.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 days ago (1 children)

That "short time" and odd date range (January to April) should both be red flags to be highly suspicious of them taking credit for external factors and cherry picking data/date ranges.

My analysis was based on taking them at face value as being the sole reason for the change, with the knowledge that the numbers they are reporting are highly deceptive. Even from that naive perspective their numbers are bad.

However, the data shows a sharp increase in the murder rate starting around 2014 due to unknown causes. The dropoff from 2010-2014 is often attributed to the defeat of the CIA backed Shower Posse gang after the Tivoli incursion in 2010.

I would bet that the current high murder rate is due, in part, to IMF loans (starting in 2013), global transition away from sugarcane to beets (predominantly EU in 2015), CIA involvement and COVID tourism impacts dramatically destabilizing the local economy. That's something that no amount of killing by the government sanctioned cartel will have any positive impact on.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 days ago

Thanks for the extra info. So not chalking it up to "failure" in such a short time should maybe be chalked up to failure in such a "short time".

Reminds me of times during the height of covid when the antivax nutter I know on Facebook would rant about some article showing "the vax not working" or whatever bullshit. His propaganda outlets of choice would seemingly sift through monthly data by country and if one country failed to report one period or reported two periods in one they'd cry foul and point to just those numbers.