this post was submitted on 03 May 2025
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A few days ago, we saw Canada's Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre lose an election and his own seat. Can we make that twice in a week?

Current numbers (6.1% counted) have a 5.1% swing to the ALP, resulting in a 6.8% lead for Labor's Ali France over Liberal leader Peter Dutton.

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 week ago

Dutton continues to claw back some of the primary vote, but the 2PP refuses to budge thanks to strong showings from Climate 200 independent Ellie Smith and Vinnie Batten from the Greens. I'll include them both in this update to show why the primary votes are so different from the 2PP.

9:57 PM AEST
33 of 40 centres reporting primaries

Name Party Primary % 2PP
Ali France Labor 19,254 34.5% 58.7%
Peter Dutton Liberal National 18,235 32.7% 41.3%
Ellie Smith Independent 7,161 12.8% N/A
Vinnie Batten The Greens 4,440 8.0% N/A

From a four-way perspective, Dutton is thoroughly behind the left/centre-left candidates.