I find it hard to believe BG3 would run that poorly at that low quality but I guess time will tell. It's up to Larian how much they want to release on Xbox
Going back to the article, I think whether it hurts MS more to keep this promise over features or not depends a great deal on what the split is between Series S and Series X consoles. I would suggest it's worse to sacrifice the Series S audience as there's less sunk cost there compared to the Series X audience, who we might assume have more of an investment in the Xbox ecosystem from the previous generation, and therefore it's harder for them to make the switch to PS5.