this post was submitted on 01 Apr 2025
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Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.

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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world. About 1C of total warming. Second chart: about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability. Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases. About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

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Average person will be 40% poorer if world warms by 4C, new research shows | Experts say previous economic models underestimated impact – as well as likely 'cascading supply chain disruptions' (www.theguardian.com)
submitted 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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[–] [email protected] 27 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

Agreed. I'm getting tired of these pencil-pusher reports implying that "the economy" is going to keep chugging along at a reduced rate, as if we can just shuffle around our stock portfolios and weather the storm.

The "Planetary Solvency" report by IFoA is one of the first mainstream papers that's taking a sober look at the climate crisis. If we hit 2°C by 2050, they're seeing a significant likelihood of:

  • 2 billion deaths
  • High number of climate tipping points triggered, partial tipping cascade.
  • Breakdown of some critical ecosystem services and Earth systems.
  • Major extinction events in multiple geographies.
  • Ocean circulation severely impacted.
  • Severe socio-political fragmentation in many regions, low lying regions lost.
  • Heat and water stress drive involuntary mass migration of billions.
  • Catastrophic mortality events from disease, malnutrition, thirst and conflict.

I don't even want to think about 3°C and 4°C scenarios.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Oh I can definitely get behind that, I have my gripes with how the current climate consensus is insidiously stacked to give policymakers leeway and mislead the public with this bullshit.

I'm reading through it now and this part on NGFS reports really captures the sentiment:

This is analogous to carrying out a risk assessment of the impact of the Titanic hitting an iceberg but excluding from our model the possibility that the ship could sink, the shortage of lifeboats, and death from drowning or hypothermia.

As much as I hate talking about 'duh economee' when it comes to climate change (a thing that threatens the existence of us and many other beings) this report nails it.

Also the critical observations are good talking points when dealing with deniers/idiots

[–] [email protected] 7 points 2 days ago

My favorite climate consensus roll-eyes is how all the graphs always stop at 2100. As if the heating will just stop at that point and we won't be looking at 6 degrees of warming by 2150. And 8 by 2200.

CO2 stays in the atmosphere for at least 500 years. There's no getting off this train.