Maybe I give the professional traders too much credit, but I figure that I won't, as an amateur, be able to outperform the market (which is largely steered by the professionals) through skill. I might get lucky, and I might be able to make educated guesses to improve my chances of getting lucky, but I figure that if there's some rational move to be made - like cashing out and waiting for a crash - then the market would be crashing already as the professionals all cash out.