Climate Crisis, Biosphere & Societal Collapse
A place to share news, experiences and discussion about the continuing climate crisis, societal collapse, and biosphere collapse. Please be respectful of each other and remember the human.
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Useful Links:
Earth - A Global Map of Wind, Weather and Ocean Conditions - Use the menu at bottom left to toggle different views. For example, you can see where wildfires/smoke are by selecting "Chem - COsc" to see carbon monoxide (CO) surface concentration.
Climate Reanalyzer (University of Maine) - A source for daily updated average global air temps, sea surface temps, sea ice, weather and more.
National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (US) - Information about ENSO and weather predictions.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) Global Temperature Rankings Outlook (US) - Tool that is updated each month, concurrent with the release of the monthly global climate report.
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System - Government of Canada
Surging Seas Risk Zone Map - For discovering which areas could be underwater soon.
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Honest questions:
Does your model take into account that the 'methane clathrate gun' seems to have been fired?
https://www.spacedaily.com/m/reports/Study_links_climate_change_to_explosive_methane_release_in_Siberian_permafrost_999.html
That more and more of the arctic is rapidly converting from a carbon sink into a carbon source?
https://news.mongabay.com/2024/05/polar-warning-warming-temperatures-mean-more-than-melted-ice/
My model, no not yet clathrates or specific permafrost feedback, although I'm concerned about these and would like to put such feedbacks in (with wide adjustable parameter ranges to reflect high uncertainty). My model is interactive, you can play with it in a browser, so it's hardly typical.
However, in relation to the OP and the Hansen paper, it's important to understand that the usual definition of climate sensitivity does not include such "slow" feedbacks - it's assumed to assume fast atmospheric feedbacks e.g. physics of clouds, but not slower biogeochemistry. CS has been used for decades for comparing models, so it's useful that the definition remains the same, simply the equilibrium (multi-century) response to CO2 doubling, it's not any kind of prediction. That's why it's surprising that he would draw strong conclusions from a number (4.5) that's well beyond the normal range.
Complex 3d physics models derive CS, while integrated assessment models use CS as a calibration parameter for one component of a complex system, including socioeconomic drivers, emissions policies, land use change, etc. Most models (including mine) do have some climate - biogeochemistry feedbacks (for example, there is faster soil respiration at higher temperature), which are included in such 'real' scenario projections, but wouldn't change the CS.
it’d be interesting to see (without knowing whether this is actually already the case with most of the models scientists use) a model that looks at the predictions we’ve made, discoveries that have led to changes, and factored in the likely changes to come in the future… it seems our refinement of these models has often been “oops we didn’t think about this source” and it happens pretty regularly