this post was submitted on 28 Jan 2025
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If TSMC doesn't want to set up shop in the USA, are the USA going to be able to produce chips on par with what TSMC can fab?
they are building a plant in Arizona, but i doubt it'll ever be as good as Taiwan can do, not just because Taiwan has the skills but if Taiwan doesn't have this then what's the point of protecting it? It's sort of a way to say, if you want to to continue to access the best chips in the world you should protect us from China
Taiwan are very clear about this; they (correctly) consider their monopoly on high end chip manufacturing to be an urgent matter of national defence and it is of the highest priority to them to keep it solely within Taiwan. They will never allow their best processes to be exported.
TSMC have advanced chip fabrication factory in Arizona in the US.
"TSMC will produce 3nm chips in the U.S., and Taiwan has already given TSMC the go-signal to manufacture 2nm chips abroad."
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/apple-will-soon-receive-made-in-america-chips-from-tsmcs-arizona-fab-company-in-final-stages-of-quality-verification
The thing with that fab is it doesn't do packaging, they ship the wafers abroad for that. I wonder if americans will end up paying tariffs on chips made in the USA.
But it cannot produce the higher end chips. That was explicitly part of the agreement when they built the facility. They're only willing to fab low end product outside of Taiwan.
I was being very specific when I said "their best processes."
I wouldn’t say 5nm and 3nm are low end
https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/2977
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/tsmcs-arizona-fab-21-mass-produces-4nm-chips-at-a-higher-price-than-taiwan
Sure, "low end" wasn't a perfectly scientifically accurate way to describe it. I apologize for my terrible lack of academic rigor.
The point is that they're not going to let their highest end processes be replicated outside of Taiwan. Or, rather, the Taiwanese government is not going to let that happen, because fear of losing access to that technology is their one bargaining chip with the West. Without that, they cease to exist as a country. There just isn't enough incentive for anyone to risk a war with China otherwise.
Totally agree that it’s a sound strategy to keep their latest and greatest on home soil. At the same time they are starting to implement tooling for important parts of clients designs like
Core chiplets for Ryzen
iPhone SOCs
https://www.pcgamer.com/hardware/gaming-monitors/amd-is-now-reportedly-making-all-american-ryzen-9000-cpu-dies-at-tsmcs-arizona-fab/
OK. It is ahistorical and hyperbolic to say they may never do that. They also have their fabs i n Taiwan rigged to self destruct if they get invaded. They are setting up shop in a different country. As fab dies shrink they get harder to make, they are building expertise somewhere else in case.
It's already fabbing chips
People downvoting you can’t do a quick search:
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/apple-will-soon-receive-made-in-america-chips-from-tsmcs-arizona-fab-company-in-final-stages-of-quality-verification
TSMC is absolutely up and running already in the US.
Yeah I know, talking a lot of blowhard talk. Chip die size was the arbitrary argument, but again, that just takes time. They are hedging their bet with a supposed ally with China being their big threat.
"TSMC will produce 3nm chips in the U.S., and Taiwan has already given TSMC the go-signal to manufacture 2nm chips abroad. "
I believe the plant is operational, as they have bragged about "great production tests". What I haven't heard of is any orders placed for that plant's products.
The US could probably do it... With hundreds of billions of government incentives to rapidly stand up the entire supply chain... Which would still take at least a decade. The machines that TSMC uses are made by ASML and themselves have a global supply chain of over 500 separate companies and are backordered for several years due to their inherent value.
In short, no.
It will take them 20 years to catch up to the 5-7 years they are behind, even with all the money in the world.
As you say, it's setting up the supply chain.
Intel has been trying to get itself into that position for years, with huge amounts of public money being pumped in, and it is struggling so badly the company lost patience and fired the CEO who had the best chance of getting this done. And, as others have said, it doesn't look like TSMC is about to let its US fabs do the most advanced stuff even if they could.
So this move will just make the best technology less accessible to the USA and tech products more expensive for Americans, for the foreseeable future.
Or 4 years, whichever comes first.
From what I understand one of the things that is protecting Taiwan from China is their fabs. They will fight for their lives to make sure they are protected by this.
As someone with family over in Taiwan, I really want them to be okay. Things are getting depressing globally.
No