The points I try to hit most are:
- There is no way for Ukraine to win short of WWIII, so the best option for the Ukranian people is to negotiate an end to the war immediately. This will not be on great terms, because that's what happens when you lose a war.
- Fighting longer will only kill more Ukranians and get them a worse peace deal.
If you can bring them around on these very immediate points, maybe they'll listen to what you say about why the war began in the first place. If you can't get through to them on "they lost, how many more have to die," it's not worth arguing much else.