forecasting

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Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Any decision we make is based on a prediction what will happen. Here we study and discuss how to do that well.

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Forecasting can be about economics, marketing, products, finance, technology, policies, demographics, energy, climate, crime, politics, or whatever.

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Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced (www.astralcodexten.com)

submitted 4 days ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 days ago

Well, I can imagine that a Polymarket market with over 2 billion dollars in trades is superior to a Metaculus question. Simultaneously Metaculus questions can be better on average. Maybe there is a point where real-money markets become better but it requires a certain amount of liquidity.