I wonder how much independence Russia has now. I doubt they'd march into another country by their own will right after Ukraine, they usually take some time to sit out the situation and replenish resources (2nd Chechen - Georgia - Ukraine 2014 - Ukraine 2022), but what if they'd be pushed by China or whoever to continue being a destabilizing chaos actor? Like with Transistria in Moldova, they also has tabs in Georgia-Armenian conflict and northern regions of Kazakhstan has the same vatnik sympathy problem as Donbass pre-2014 as I've heard.