this post was submitted on 20 Oct 2024
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This is for the US specifically. Ok so I’ve thought about this A LOT and my best prediction, avoiding both wishful thinking and doomerism, is that I don’t think those who are openly fascist will be able to turn the country into Nazi Germany. The US is just too diverse and that kind of blatant fascism likely will only fly with a minority of white chuds. This is especially true of the younger generations who would need to be co-opted in order to enforce it, since old people are generally not the best when it comes to fighting wars, either internal or external. As it stands now, younger generations are increasingly more diverse and increasingly have shifted left in their views, which would make co-opting them difficult, and an example of this at the present time is the issue the pentagon has been having with military recruitment. They (the fascist right) really don’t have the numbers on their side. Remember when US marshals under Trump tried to subdue Portland? That was a complete and utter failure, and it’s only one city. Imagine if they tried that in every major US city.
So yeah, I could be wrong but I don’t think open fascism is likely. What’s more likely imo is a continuation of the dysfunction we’re already seeing, which means more stuff like mass shootings, terror attacks, etc. by chuds, more quiet “liberal” fascism that pretends the US is a functioning democracy, and potentially more Balkanization. The US is also going to be facing more and more pressure on the world stage as China passes it up economically and militarily. I think all this combined will lead to a worsening situation and increasing destabilization, but again I think open fascism isn’t all that likely to succeed.
For Europe I’m less certain, but some of the same arguments apply I think. The US is the lynchpin holding the current global order together, so once they start to falter, Europe may starting looking to boost ties elsewhere, such as with China and Russia who may have more to offer. Also open fascism in Europe would likely threaten the EU, which it seems would not be the best outcome for the ruling class, so I think they’d likely lean towards EU stability over nationalism in individual EU countries, but that’s just a guess.
The problem with your argument here is it ignores that whiteness isn't static. It can and will expand to include other groups of people to prop up white supremacy. Plus, we already have two parties pushing fascist immigration policies and massive amounts of Islamophobia. We don't need a majority of marginalized people to go fash. We just need enough and I think the Democrats doing a genocide while most of their base still willing to vote for them is going to go a long way to legitimize fascist policies, especially if that party continues to choose the triangulation strategy. I mean...I've had other queer people basically fantasizing about me being hate crimed for being nonbinary in the Middle East because I won't vote for Holocaust Harris.
People were saying Gen X were too cynical to buy into right wing bullshit and then they did. You're starting to see the same thing happen to Millennials as we age and there's nothing stopping the younger generations from going that way either. There's always going to be people inheriting their family's wealth and turning into shitty rich (or upper middle class) people. Being "left wing" doesn't really amount to anything when there's no organizational structure to weed out grifters, opportunists and crypto-fascists. Many people don't become right wingers because they love being reactionary, they do so because they give up on the possibility of social change and start to adopt the right wing framing of "it's everyone for themselves."
I'm not a doomer. I think the fact that colonized people who had it way worse than Americans threw off the chains of oppression mean that we can too but I don't think assuming that demographics will stop us from going fascist is a good idea. Democrats have been beating that drum since 2008 and we're just becoming more and more right wing as a society.
To be a little more clear, I think this type of liberal fascism absolutely will continue. What I was trying to say is that I don't think we'll see an openly fascist government like in Nazi Germany where undesirables are hauled off to death camps, since I just don't think that really fits with present day US. The sort of thing we've already seen and continue to see will still be there, though, and likely will continue on its current trajectory.
We are already putting undocumented migrants in concentration camps and supporting Israel who is definitely running death camps. Fascist USA will look different than Nazi Germany for cultural reasons but I don't trust liberals to be better than the Nazis, I mean German libs supported the OG Nazis at the end of the day.