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What's your prediction for the 2024 US election? (lemmy.world)

submitted 1 month ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Who's winning POTUS? Will it be called on election night or drawn out? Congress? Etc

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (2 children)

Maybe I'm crazy, but I feel like gamblers have a heavy right lean.

Edit - Oops: https://midwest.social/post/18205923?scrollToComments=true

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

You're not wrong, it's because leftists are generally more critical of gambling.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

Gamblers don't always get it right, but this page has some interesting history: https://electionbettingodds.com/about.html

Gamblers, polls, and the NYT's most sophisticated prediction algorithms all got it very wrong in 2016, and severely overestimating hillary and underestimating trump. But of those three, the prediction markets were the least wrong.