this post was submitted on 17 Oct 2024
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Trump outperformed polling in both of the last elections, and the polls are much closer now, so if he even just outperforms the same amount as before he wins.
I think the polls have tried to correct for this, and I also believe Kamala has huge and sophisticated ground game operation aimed at turnout while Trump's team seems completely disorganized. So I wonder if that advantage in operational sophistication counts for anything.