this post was submitted on 03 Oct 2024
36 points (100.0% liked)
Funny
111 readers
60 users here now
Funniest content on all Lemmygrad
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
Liberal capitalists are not necessarily that smart. And Russia is not run by principled Marxists.
It's one of those things I worry about a bit. I worry a lot more about the west convincing India to get into a hot war with China that turns nuclear while they sit on the sidelines eating popcorn and waiting to swoop in and take control of the remainder populations of both to exploit.
Do I think Russia will trust the west in the way it did post USSR dissolution in the 90s, 2000s, even 2010s in the near future? No. Does that mean that they can't be bought or rented? Also no.
They wouldn't do anything on credit or on the basis of promises like they have done in the past but if the west gave them concrete things and benefits in hand (instead of stringing them along) I think there are enough of the ruling class in Russia who are mercenary enough that they could be obliged to at the very least turn the other way and clasp their hands together withholding any help while the west knifes China, stopping shipments, ignoring western missiles passing over their airspace, that kind of stuff. I don't think the west can recruit them to pour their armies across the Chinese border to fight with the west but they could be bribed to backstab them possibly, especially if they think they can do so with plausible deniability. So things like selling military secrets they learned from defense cooperation, making certain moves with natural resources that are unfriendly and timed to hurt China, selling the west weapons tech or weapons manufacturing, things like that.
Basically Russia is still very much a fair-weather friend to China even with all that has happened.
The problem with humans is we live such short lives. Lessons are learned and die with the ones who learn them, the next generation being fooled by the same lies their fathers or grandfathers were, this holds as true for world leaders outside the US hegemon led order as it does for workers in the imperial core who are fooled time and again, each generation in the same types of ways. So once Putin is out of power and dies, maybe those who didn't take these lessons to heart gain power, maybe just very mercenary factions of the Russian bourgeoisie and their political class gain power. (I sometimes think if humans lived natural lives to the average age of 150 and stayed able to do work and had functioning faculties regularly into their 120th year that the revolution would have swept the globe decades ago)
Part of this is Russia refuses to shut the door on the west. They don't unleash full propaganda on their people about how awful the west is because they're still being strung along by whispered promises and winks from Macron and other Euro leaders that there is this idea that the Ukraine conflict will wind down in a year or so and then the EU will come back to Russia for gas and trade and they can have their cake and eat it too and beat the US. And there is some truth that there are independent minded Europeans who'd like to get back together with Russia to check US influence but they're not actually in power, they're on a leash and the US can tug it much harder yet to reign in them and their aspirations for Europe escaping the grasp of the US.
The biggest thing going for us and China is the fact the US is so arrogant and used to unipolarity that I'm just not sure they can make a convincing gesture to the Russian ruling class that convinces them in the next 10 years when it might matter.
You don't need to be a principled Marxist to realize that people who hate you and want to destroy you are not your friends. The war made it crystal clear to the Russians that the west is their enemy and that it is an existential threat to Russia. Meanwhile, China has shown itself to be a good and reliable partner.
It's important to understand the bourgeoisie class is not homogeneous. The type of capitalists who are pro western are the ones who were benefiting from western business relations. The west, in its infinite wisdom, made sure that these people lost their assets in the west and had their businesses ruined. They got replaced by domestic bourgeoisie who filled the niches left by western companies. From their perspective, the west is just competition that needs to be kept out.
At the end of the day, China and Russia share a lot of common interests and common threats. This creates a solid basis for cooperation. On top of that, Russia and China complement each other economically. Russia has a low population density and abundant natural resources, while China has a lot of high tech industry. It's a relationship that's very similar to US and Canada incidentally.
While Russia has always had people who looked up to the west and felt some sort of inferiority, they've now either fled to the west or been ejected from politics. As the new economic realities settle in, there's going to be less and less of an argument to be made for dealing with the west going forward.
It's also important to note that Putin is a moderate in Russia. Most of the other prominent politicians are far more hardline than he is, and more hostile to the west.
You are correct that there are independently minded Europeans who would want to restore relations with Russia. Hungary and Slovakia are obvious examples. However, this isn't going to be Russia getting integrated back in the west. Rather, the opposite will happen with western countries peeling off from the west to join BRICS.
I mean, if those people were the overwhelming majority of the Russian bourgeoisie, that might have actually worked. But then, there would not have been a Putin at that point, and there wouldn't be a need for this military operation, perhaps - because Russia would have been subjugated to NATO, Yeltsin-style.
Exactly, if that was the case then the west would've been able to break Russia up already.
One can only hope.
I tend to be an optimist. :)