Occam’s razor cuts well on the two “possible” viewpoints of this war.

You really need to stop sniffing your own farts.

Every world leader and military strategist since the 1930s has understood Ukraine to be critical to the national security of Russia. That's why the Third Reich invaded Russia across the Ukrainian border. When the USSR was being dismantled, all world leaders understood Ukrainian neutrality to be a critical component of Russian national security. It was openly discussed. It's been a known component of international security for decades.

And yet, when we got access to leaks, we learned that simultaneously while NATO was telling Gorbie that Ukraine would remain neutral, Clinton was working internally to figure out to get NATO to establish presence in Ukraine. Despite Russia telling NATO and the world that Ukraine is critical to their national security, the war machine just kept on rolling. Despite Russia not reacting to all other border occupations by NATO in the Baltic states, this was the one red line that everyone knew about publicly that would tip Russia over the edge.

And that's exactly what happened. The idea that NATO wasn't threatening Russia because it wasn't physically installed yet is such a ridiculous point. Are you proposing that Russia would only have a casus belli after NATO finished installing nuclear capabilities? Are you proposing that Russia should wait until NATO is ready to fight before choosing to fight?

It's clear that you've only read analysis from the last year and only from Western sources. Just go read about this history from the 90s. Actually engage with the historical context here.