this post was submitted on 02 Aug 2024
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A Boring Dystopia
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1: The Sahm recession indicator triggered in July. Now both this and the Kantro indicator are signaling that a recession already started. Both have a near perfect record since 1970.
2: How the ‘strong’ US economy feels for poorer Americans, in five charts
3:
Ok let me preface this by saying every single person experiencing homelessness deserves the security of a roof over their head and more.
<150,000 is surprisingly low to me.
Is this nationwide? The upward trend is concerning no doubt, clearly something is wrong is more people are experiencing chronic homelessness at a rapidly rising rate. But honest to god I am shocked to see it isn’t at least 1-2mill nationwide.
Edit: thinking about it now 1 in 300 would be pretty high
It is a notoriously hard metric to track
Yeah and my 1-2mill would mean 1 in 150-300 which would be pretty high tbh
But think of all the people you know living in vans and campers. For me, these days that's a lot of people. I really don't think that's enough either
Why don't they just go door to.... ah, nevermind.
It was triggered today… and has had only two false positives since 1959.
What most people don’t know is that the economist who coined the term, Claudia Sahm, proposed this rule as a way to warn governments to allow them to preemptively send out stimulus to their population lol.
The Sahm rule originates from a chapter in the Brookings Institution's report on the use of fiscal policy to stabilize the economy during recessions.
(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahm_Rule#cite_note-2)The chapter, written by Sahm, proposes fiscal policy to automatically send stabilizing payments to citizens to boost economic well-being. Instead of relying on human intuition to determine when such payments should be sent, Sahm outlines a condition to trigger the payments.
(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahm_Rule#cite_note-:1-3) The trigger suggested indicates an economy beginning a recession and is now known as the Sahm rule. The Sahm rule recession indicator was also featured early in a Goldman Sachs U.S. economic research report by economist William C. Dudley with a recommended trigger of 0.33%
(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahm_Rule#cite_note-4) (the nowadays more commonly used rule triggers a recession signal when the Sahm metric is crossing above 0.5%).
That last chart uses "raw" numbers but it needs to be compared using per 100k or something of the sort