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The prosecution made a point of not asking for any jail time in this hearing, but rather a warning that future violations will escalate to that. I don't think the Judge really wants to jail Trump while the trial is ongoing. Trump will get a hefty fine as well as that warning. Well see how long it takes for Trump to end up in Rikers.
But why, though? Trump doesn't give a fuck about fines; time spent in jail is the only thing that has any chance of getting through to him because his wealth/grift can't solve it for him.
I'm willing to bet even just sending him to the holding cells in the couthouse for a couple hours each time he makes another out-of-order outburst would shut him up real quick.
All a short term trip to jail would do is play into the Martyr complex that he and his supporters have. He would complain that he's not getting a fair trial, and low-information voters who are not paying attention will believe it.
While the judge doesn't care about Trump's political prospects, he does care that the trial is fair and that public perceptions don't make it into the jury's deliberations. But marching Trump off to a holding cell will be such an event that it would be impossible to keep it from the jury, and could give Trump a valid avenue for appeal.
However, if the judge establishes a paper trail that proves Trump was given every chance to comply, then it would make it harder for the appeal to succeed. Trump can't very well argue that the court is biased against him when they gave him extra opportunities to comply.
He has and will continue to do this, and worse, and his cult will believe all of it, and worse. We cannot make decisions, especially not exceptions to laws, based on fears of how a fascist cult of supporters will react to it. They are going to do and say stupid/crazy shit, all the time, no matter what.