Abstract

Recent Earth energy budget observations show an increase in the sunlight absorbed by the Earth of 0.45 W/m2 per decade, caused primarily by a decrease in cloud reflection. Here we decompose the solar radiative budget trends into general circulation and cloud controlling process components. Regimes representing the midlatitude and tropical storm zones are defined, and the trends in the areal coverage of those regimes which are potentially induced by circulation changes are separated from trends in the cloud radiative effect within each regime which are potentially induced by changes in local cloud controlling processes. The regime area change component, which manifests itself as a contraction of the midlatitude and tropical storm regimes, constitutes the largest contribution to the solar absorption trend, causing decreased sunlight reflection of 0.37 W/m2 per decade. This result provides a crucial missing piece in the puzzle of the 21st century increase of the Earth's solar absorption.

Key Points

Satellite observations show that in the past 24 years the worlds storm cloud zones have been contracting at a rate of 1.5%–3% per decade

This contraction allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface and constitutes the largest contribution to the observed 21st century trend of increased solar absorption

Plain Language Summary

Analysis of satellite observations shows that in the past 24 years the Earth's storm cloud zones in the tropics and the middle latitudes have been contracting at a rate of 1.5%–3% per decade. This cloud contraction, along with cloud cover decreases at low latitudes, allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. When the contribution of all cloud changes is calculated, the storm cloud contraction is found to be the main contributor to the observed increase of the Earth's solar absorption during the 21st century.

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The collapse of a crucial network of Atlantic Ocean currents could push parts of the world into a deep freeze, with winter temperatures plunging to around minus 55 degrees Fahrenheit in some cities, bringing “profound climate and societal impacts,” according to a new study.

There is increasing concern about the future of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation — known as the AMOC — a system of currents that works like a giant conveyor belt, pulling warm water from the Southern Hemisphere and tropics to the Northern Hemisphere, where it cools, sinks and flows back south.

Multiple studies suggest the AMOC is weakening with some projecting it could even collapse this century as global warming disrupts the balance of heat and salinity that keeps it moving. This would usher in huge global weather and climate shifts — including plunging temperatures in Europe, which relies on the AMOC for its mild climate.

“What if the AMOC collapses and we have climate change? Does the cooling win or does the warming win?” asked René van Westen, a marine and atmospheric researcher at Utrecht University in the Netherlands and co-author of the paper published Wednesday in the Geophysical Research Letters journal.

This new study is the first to use a modern, complex climate model to answer the question, he told CNN.

The researchers looked at a scenario where the AMOC weakens by 80% and the Earth is around 2 degrees Celsius warmer than the period before humans began burning large amounts of fossil fuels. The planet is currently at 1.2 degrees of warming.

They focused on what would happen as the climate stabilized post-collapse, multiple decades into the future.

Even in this hotter world, they found “substantial cooling” over Europe with sharp drops in average winter temperatures and more intense cold extremes — a very different picture than the United States, where the study found temperatures would continue to increase even with an AMOC collapse.

Sea ice would spread southward as far as Scandinavia, parts of the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, the research found. This would have a huge impact on cold extremes as the white surface of the ice reflects the sun’s energy back into space, amplifying cooling.

The scientists have created an interactive map to visualize the impacts of an AMOC collapse across the globe.

AMOC Scenario Visualization

Archive : https://archive.ph/kZXcu

We have recently revised the temperature threshold. Up to 2022, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said the tipping point for coral reefs would occur when warming is between 1.5C and 2C above preindustrial levels. But in 2023, we revised that to between 1C and 1.5C. The world is already close to that upper limit and it will certainly come within the next 10 or 20 years as a result of committed climate change – which comes from cumulative emissions that have already gone into the atmosphere. So have we already gone past the tipping point for coral reefs in global terms? Perhaps.

Well, nice one humans /s

Seems this highly relevant piece was not yet posted here.

An excellent and thorough summary. Mostly bad news but not all.

Archived

[...]

Q. But do you think this is a form of McCarthyism?

A. That depends on what you mean by McCarthyism. Is there a disregard for reality and facts? Is there a call to accuse people, to pit people against each other? Yes, there’s polarization. And polarization is really dangerous. But I think the important thing is that, centuries ago, we had a fight over facts and science. And now, we have a new fight in which we must restore credit to science.

We’re in a difficult situation, fighting against red herrings, against straw men... I had a colleague in the United States Senate named Daniel Patrick Moynihan. He was a great senator from New York and he said that everyone has a right to their own opinion, but not their own facts.

Q. And how can the world recover from these damaging U.S. actions toward research?

A. We will recover if people understand their own empowerment. France, Germany, [Europe overall] and more countries have the capacity to conduct science and increase investment. And that’s going to have to happen. It’s not unlike the debate over European defense needs in the context of Ukraine; [the EU has] decided to spend more.

[...]

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• A recent study reveals that over a fifth of the world's ocean has darkened in the last two decades, reducing the surface layers of the sea that receive light, known as photic zones, and where most marine life exists.
• The darkening is attributed to factors like increased rainfall, agricultural runoff, harmful algal blooms, and climate change, with significant changes observed near the poles, the Gulf Stream, and the Baltic Sea.
• Reduced photic zones may force marine animals closer to the surface, increasing competition for resources and potentially altering the entire marine ecosystem, according to Tim Smyth of Plymouth Marine Laboratory.
• Changes in the ocean's photic zones could impact human activities such as recreation, transport, and food supply, potentially affecting the availability of prey and driving predators closer to shore.
• Researchers used data from NASA’s Ocean Color Web satellite and developed an algorithm to measure light in seawater, finding that over 9% of the ocean saw its lit zones reduced by more than 50 meters.

The photic zone, also known as the euphotic zone or sunlight zone, is the upper layer of a body of water that receives enough sunlight for photosynthesis, typically extending to about 200 meters deep. This zone is crucial for marine life, as it supports the majority of aquatic organisms, including phytoplankton, which are essential for oxygen production and the ocean's food web.

On a walk near his house, with views of the ocean, Mark Ellis speaks with urgency about how the utility business—the industry that long employed him—is harming the public with unsustainable rate increases.

He keeps coming back to the same point: The complexity of utility regulation is obscuring a transfer of wealth from the general public to shareholders on a vast scale.

He’s far from the first person to say this. But he’s getting attention to a degree others haven’t, thanks to the clarity of his message and his status as a former utility insider. He’s in the early stages of becoming an activist.

Ellis’ adversaries should know what they’re up against. He is a financial analyst, with degrees from Harvard and MIT, and he is a wrestler, with experience on the mat as recently as two years ago, when he was competing in his age division in national tournaments.

“I don’t like bullies,” he said. “I feel like there’s a lot of bullying going on with utilities. People need to stand up to the bully.”

U.S. households have seen their electricity prices increase by an average of 25 percent from 2020 to 2024, which exceeds the rate of inflation, according to the Energy Information Administration.

When electricity is unaffordable, the transition away from fossil fuels becomes expensive to the point that it stretches feasibility; ideas such as electrifying home heating and using electricity to power vehicles make less sense in purely financial terms.

The evidence against the Drax power station is damning, yet the government wants to continue its massive public funding, says campaigner Dale Vince

How green is this? We pay billions of pounds to cut down ancient forests in the US and Canada, ship the wood across the Atlantic in diesel tankers, then burn it in a Yorkshire-based power station.

Welcome to the scandal of Drax, where Britain’s biggest polluter gets to play climate hero. [...]

Chapters:

0:00 I. Introduction

1:41 II. What is Necropolitics?

6:45 III. Colonialism and Zombification

9:15 IV. Algorithms and Digital Overseers

14:06 V. Systems and Necropolitical Violence

17:28 VI. Death Driven Feedback Loops

Some parts of India have been forced to shut down schools amid the country's declining birth rates.

Economist Sanjeev Sanyal, who was previously the principal economic adviser in India's finance ministry and a member of the Economic Advisory Council to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has spoken about this happening and called for it to occur "more routinely."

"Our population is only growing now because we are living longer, we are not having enough babies," he told the Indian financial newspaper Mint on Monday. "So our problem is already the case that in parts of the country we have to shut down schools."

India is one of the many countries around the world that is struggling with an aging population, meaning that people will continue to live longer while fertility rates fall.

The nation, the most populous country on Earth, had a fertility rate of 2 (the average number of children a woman has) in 2023, the most recent year for which the World Bank has fertility data. The rate has fallen drastically from 1950, when it was 5.7.

The world’s most productive agricultural regions face the greatest losses from climate change, with major farming areas in wealthy nations potentially losing as much as 40% of their maize and wheat production this century, a comprehensive new study has found.

In their analysis of more than 12,000 regions across 55 countries, a team of researchers from top U.S. and international institutions found that for every 1°C increase in global temperature, global food production could decline by approximately 120 calories per person per day—equivalent to 4.4% of current daily consumption.

The study, published in Nature, reveals that even when so-called climate adaptation strategies are undertaken, “breadbasket” regions are particularly vulnerable, and will face substantial reductions in the production of most key food crops, presenting a concerning outlook for global food security.

But if you look at this year's update, things are all moving in the wrong direction."

Sudan's war is in strategic stalemate. Each side stakes its hopes on a new offensive, a new delivery of weapons, a new political alliance, but neither can gain a decisive advantage.

The losers are the Sudanese people. Every month there are more who are hungry, displaced, despairing.

Month after month of blockade, bombardment and ground attacks have created famine among the residents, with the people of the displaced camp of Zamzam worst-hit.

The RSF and its allied Arab militias have a terrifying record of massacre, rape and ethnic cleansing. Human rights organisations have accused it of genocide against the Massalit people of West Darfur.

Zaghawa communities in el-Fasher fear that if the Joint Forces are defeated, they will suffer savage reprisals at the hands of the RSF.

If we hit 40+ again this year a lot of vulnerable people in this country are going to die, me included.

The standard for acceptable housing here is very poor, many places are very shoddily (or just not at all) insulated and it's common to have really bad ventilation. In summer, buildings become ovens/saunas that don't cool down till the temp outside is sufficiently cool enough for long enough, and in winter these same accommodations are damp, mouldy and freezing cold as it's so expensive to heat uninsulated places.

Antarctic seal populations are drastically declining as the sea ice melts around them, new research has shown.

Researchers from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) have been monitoring the seal population in the sub-Antarctic since the 1970s, looking in particular at three different seal species in the sub-Antarctic on Signy Island: Weddell seals, Antarctic fur seals and southern elephant seals.

Using satellite records from as far back as 1982, the research team compared annual changes in sea ice concentration with seal population counts conducted since 1977. With five decades worth of data spanning a period of long-term warming and temporary cooling between 1998 and 2014, they were able to draw a comprehensive picture of how seal populations react to changing ice conditions, something shorter-term studies would not be able to achieve.

The study, published in the scientific journal Global Change Biology, found Weddell seals (leptonychotes weddellii), which rely on stable sea ice to rest, breed and feed, had declined by 54% since 1977. Similarly, Antarctic fur seals (arctocephalus gazella), which breed on land but are affected by food chain shifts, have declined by 47%.

Archived

• Brazilian and Chinese authorities — including Presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Xi Jinping — recently discussed a proposed railway that would connect Brazil’s Atlantic coast to Peru’s new Pacific-facing Chancay Port, cutting through the Amazon.
• From Lucas do Rio Verde, a major agricultural hub in the state of Mato Grosso, the railway would be built from scratch, advancing into the Amazon’s Arc of Deforestation.
• Planners intend to build the Amazonian section of the railway alongside existing highways, a strategy aimed at minimizing environmental impacts and streamlining the licensing process.
• However, environmental activists warn that the Bioceanic Corridor, together with newly planned roads, waterways and ports, could accelerate deforestation and degradation in the rainforest.

[...]

For China, the Bioceanic Corridor is a promising connection to the Chancay Port, one of many projects of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, also known as the New Silk Road — a strategy aimed at expanding China’s trade capacity and global influence. In November, President Xi Jinping visited Peru to inaugurate the new port, located about 75 km (47 mi) from the capital, Lima. The $3.4 billion project is led by the Chinese state-owned company COSCO, which holds a 60% stake in the venture.

[...]

The Bioceanic Corridor does not yet have a fully defined route, but the Brazilian government’s proposal is already known. Starting from the Atlantic coast, the plan is to link the three sections of the West-East Integration Railway (FIOL) with two segments of the Central-West Integration Railway (FICO), both at different stages of construction at the moment. This route would pass through the Matopiba region, an expanding agricultural frontier for soy and cattle, which accounted for 75% of deforestation in the biodiverse Cerrado savanna in 2024.

[...]

The Kok River, once a lifeline for communities across northern Thailand, is facing an environmental catastrophe.

archived (Wayback Machine)

cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/67063993

Highlights

Global & regional analysis of all GHG drivers (1820–2050)

Economic growth (+81Gt) overwhelmed efficiency gains (−31Gt)

Carbon intensity must immediately fall 3 × faster (−2.25 %/yr) to 2050.

Regional drivers: population vs affluence patterns vary sharply.

Reveals unprecedented gap between trends and climate needs.

Abstract

Identifying the socio-economic drivers behind greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to design mitigation policies. Existing studies predominantly analyze short-term CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, neglecting long-term trends and other GHGs. We examine the drivers of all greenhouse gas emissions between 1820–2050 globally and regionally. The Industrial Revolution triggered sustained emission growth worldwide—initially through fossil fuel use in industrialized economies but also as a result of agricultural expansion and deforestation. Globally, technological innovation and energy mix changes prevented 31 (17–42) Gt CO2e emissions over two centuries. Yet these gains were dwarfed by 81 (64–97) Gt CO2e resulting from economic expansion, with regional drivers diverging sharply: population growth dominated in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, while rising affluence was the main driver of emissions elsewhere. Meeting climate targets now requires the carbon intensity of GDP to decline 3 times faster than the global best 30-year historical rate (–2.25 % per year), which has not improved over the past five decades. Failing such an unprecedented technological change or a substantial contraction of the global economy, by 2050 global mean surface temperatures will rise more than 3 °C above pre-industrial levels.

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This is our latest attempt to get to the root of what men are going through—not just what’s happening, but why.

It’s worth noting that the later stages of capitalism, along with corporate greed and an evolving career landscape, affect all of us. But the exploitation of grifters in the manosphere is unique to men.

Think we missed something? Leave a comment and help us fill in the gaps

00:00 - Intro: What Happened to Men? Why are so many men falling apart? This isn’t just about loneliness or school stats—it’s about decades of lies, political betrayal, and a fantasy that was never built to last.

00:55 - Chapter 1: The Golden Era That Never Was The post-WWII American Dream promised men stability and status—but only for a select few. When the economy changed, the myth stayed, and resentment took root.

04:46 - Chapter 2: Reagan and the Great Betrayal Reaganomics didn’t just cut taxes—it gutted the working class. A new gospel was born: hustle harder, blame the poor, and ignore the billionaires laughing all the way to the bank.

07:30 - Chapter 3: The Masculinity Vacuum Once purpose disappeared, the grift moved in. Grievance merchants filled the void with rage, cosplay masculinity, and a monthly subscription box for insecurity.

10:46 - Chapter 4: The Right-Wing Pickup Artist The right didn’t rescue men—they monetized their confusion. Trump & Co. turned pain into politics and sold fascism in flannel.

14:30 - Chapter 5: How to Fix It (No Promo Code Required) No more gimmicks. No more gurus. Rebuilding manhood means ditching the cosplay, owning your choices, and choosing contribution over clout.

19:00 - Outro: Build Something Real The challenge isn’t to reclaim a lost identity—it’s to build something better. For those done chasing nostalgia, the work starts now.

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Morning frosts have hit Serbian fruit production hard, mainly affecting early stone fruit varieties.

In the Čačak region, experts from the Institute of Fruit Growing report that 95% of apricot crops have been destroyed.

The damage varies by location, with Vojvodina experiencing more than 90% loss in lowland areas, while areas near Belgrade show 40-50% damage.

Cherries and pears have also suffered, with a complete damage assessment expected by the end of April.

Temperatures are expected to be up to two degrees Celsius hotter than average across the region, with forecasts for above-average rains, according to a monsoon outlook released by Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) on Wednesday.

"Rising temperatures and more extreme rain raise the risk of water-induced disasters such as floods, landslides, and debris flows, and have longer-term impacts on glaciers, snow reserves, and permafrost," Arun Bhakta Shrestha, a senior adviser at ICIMOD, said in a statement.

The summer monsoon, which brings South Asia 70-80 percent of its annual rainfall, is vital for agriculture and therefore for the livelihoods of millions of farmers and for food security in a region that is home to around two billion people.

However, it also brings destruction through landslides and floods every year. Melting glaciers add to the volume of water, while unregulated construction in flood-prone areas exacerbates the damage.

"What we have seen over the years are also cascading disasters where, for example, heavy rainfall can lead to landslides, and landslides can actually block rivers. We need to be aware about such possibilities," Saswata Sanyal, manager of ICIMOD's Disaster Risk Reduction work, told AFP.

Last year's monsoon season brought devastating landslides and floods across South Asia and killed hundreds of people, including more than 300 in Nepal.