this post was submitted on 09 Jul 2023
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I rarely read this sort of thing. It's honestly just very dense and I can't motivate myself to read it every day. That said, with the new cluster bombs getting shipped to Ukraine and some Western pundits accusing the Counteroffensive of stagnation I kind of just wanted to know, "What the actual F is going on in Ukraine right now?"

So my partial TLDR is:

  • It's very early in the counteroffensive to say who is "winning".
  • The source publication believes that the Ukrainian Army is focusing on inflicting disproportionate casualties onto the Russian Military in lieu of focusing on taking back land as quickly as possible.
  • There's a lot of uncertainty inside the Russian political sphere and the upper echelons of the Ministry of Defense.
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