I hate how they're supporting the fiction that this isn't gambling by calling it a "prediction site". It's gambling, always has been.
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Anyone have the odds on how long it will take for this to be circumvented?
Depends, but immediately for either case.
A) Mostly likely. The ISP blocks DNS resolution for that domain, directing users to a placeholder site instead. User just uses a DNS resolver other than their ISPs such as Google's or Cloudflare's - easy, quick, free.
B) The ISP also has to block routing to IPs associated with the site. Unlikely, but easily circumvented by using a VPN so that your direct routing goes via elsewhere. Easy, quick, free or paid.
These blocks are common for sites a government deems illegal or undesirable. Nothing new here at a technical level.
Accessing the site is one thing but what about transferring money to/from?
Same way. Transfer money in once you're on the website and is not being blocked at bank level. They also take crypto so it's not like the bank can block it either even if France tried to block that.
BTW, I think the site and premis behind Polymarket is shit and nobody should use it, but blocking websites effectively has proven difficult at a technical level. (See PirateBay, still going strong despite everything entire governments and massive lobbying power can throw at it, and 4chan's refusal to be blocked by the UK's OSA) Most governments settle for the political win and blocking people with only a casual interest, which is fair enough. Most serious attempts at blocking specific sites tends just to make lawyers richer.
I agree when it comes to pirate websites and other shady stuff but I think those guys are a "legitimate" business, even if disgusting, and if France bans them from operating on the territory and they knowingly enable french people to use the site, could still be trouble. I have no idea how they function but I'd be surprised if they don't even make you ID yourself on there similar to a trading app?..
By users or Polymarket?
If it's the former, zero seconds with VPNs. For the latter, no idea.
While well-meaning this is a terrible idea and not how the Internet should work. Block their payments, make it illegal to operate, but don't start letting any government decide who's allowed on the Internet.
Eh, it's probably more effective to ban payment services from performing transactions. Doesn't stop crypto currencies but it would still be 99% effective.
Polymarket agreed to stop offering its service in France in 2024. There is no non-crypto transaction to block for France.
Based, but imo flawed - its setting yet another precedent that governments can block access to sites they deem "incorrect". Take away their ability to make a profit, cut off their payment systems, but dont you dare try to regulate who is allowed on the internet
Some people seems to think that blocking a site sets a bad precedent. It's too late for that, France routinely block illegal download sites. That's the reason openDNS stopped operating in france.
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