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[–] 53 points 2 months ago (18 children)

Big doubt on that assessment.

Poland is one of the most “never again will we be the victims”-culture (aside of Finland). They are armed to the teeth and won’t fuck around.

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  • [–] 19 points 2 months ago (7 children)

    Poland doesn't even need us to intervene, they will rock Putin's shit before asking for help.

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  • [–] 6 points 2 months ago* (6 children)

    Russia is actually in a pretty bad position right now. They are at an inflection point and losing the war, all things considered.

    My biggest question is how Moscow will eventually concede this fact. I don’t think they will and it’ll likely end up as either a nuke being used or internal revolt and revolution

    If nothing changes, in six months, there will be mass famine and near ubiquitous collapse within Russia.

    Poland doesn’t need to do anything

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  • [–] 7 points 2 months ago (4 children)

    There won't be a nuke, that's just fearmongering. There will also be no revolt of any kind, the vast majority of russians are ok with the war, they want it to end but only in their favour, because they are always given somebody to fuck over beneath them - ethnic minorities, queer people, ukranians, etc. For a revolt they would genuinely have to start starving (which I highly doubt would be allowed to happen) and even then it would be a revolt against an incompetent war monger dictator, not against the dictatorship and war as a whole. The military would most likely seize the control of the country and we would have Myanmar 2.0. It is somewhat of a collapse, especially if some municipalities decide to go rogue, more so chechnya than any others, but the country itself would most likely just remain in an extremely poor as-is state with crime through the roof like what they had in the 90s, if not worse.

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  • [–] 0 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

    How in tune are you with the current situation in Russia right now? I’ll assume not much because a year ago I’d agree with you. Hell even 8 months ago.

    There are gas shortages and rationing across the entire country. Truckers abandoning shipments as they run out of gas, farmers cannot operate their equipment (with the harvesting season coming soon). Civilians in Moscow cannot find gas, mass stealing of others fuel out of their vehicles, 2 day fuel lines spanning hundreds of kilometers in places far away from the front line. It’s so bad that they’ve set up portable toilets on the side of the road…

    Russia, the gas station of the world, cannot provide fuel for citizens in their capital city. They are now having to import from Kazakhstan, Belarus, and India. But even that wouldn’t amount to more than 3-4% of their monthly usage.

    Wanna see a revolt? That shit is on the near horizon…

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  • [–] 4 points 2 months ago (1 child)

    You know how the maga crowd is saying that it's all just temporary hardship that they must endure for a brighter future? Apply that x999 to russians. As long as they don't have to accept 2 men holding hands in public, they will bend over for pineapples up their asses and claim that it's actually more comfortable to walk that way anyway.

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  • [–] 0 points 2 months ago

    Yeah, and I fully get where you’re coming from. But this is actually different.

    When truckers can’t even make deliveries to grocery stores, people cannot drive to work, and are being laid off because of it, combined with the pending inability for them to harvest crops… Hungry people stop caring so much about cultural bs when they’re skipping meals. Js this is about to get really bad for them. It’s not a hyperbole.

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  • [–] 6 points 2 months ago (7 children)

    Is finnland really that hard on this culture? I know only a bit about the civilic culture but not the militarism culture of finland

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  • [–] 22 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (6 children)

    Consider that everyone is conscripted, afterwards in the reserve, rifles are stockpiled, bunkers build under public buildings (like swimming halls), the artillery is the biggest of Europe and the Forest bordering Russia a kill-house that waits to get lid on fire.

    Yea. I think that is culture.

    Also.. sisu

    Sisu is extraordinary determination in the face of extreme adversity, and courage that is presented typically in situations where success is unlikely

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  • [–] 8 points 2 months ago (3 children)

    I would just like to add: Perkele

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  • [–] 1 point 2 months ago

    I think that's the point? The Ukraine war isn't going to plan, so they could be looking for an exit strategy to save face.

    "We could've won the war if NATO didn't get involved 😔"

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  • [–] 13 points 2 months ago (2 children)

    That would be a very quick war for them

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  • [–] 8 points 2 months ago

    Says the known lying right wing Torygraph, reporting what the fascist US says, about their forever enemy Russia.

    I'm sure this is completely legit, with no ulterior motives at all...

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  • [–] 5 points 2 months ago (2 children)
  • [–] 1 point 2 months ago*

    Russia "we can't win against Ukraine" to test the resolve of the worlds mightiest military alliance, while still engaged in Ukraine? By attacking a nation that's been preparing to fight them off since the 90s?

    Sure... this is clearly not US officials fear mongering to grab at for the shredded remains of their significance after their diplomatic influence got rekt by their current "administration". /s

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  • [–] 1 point 2 months ago (7 children)

    Russia even can’t handle Ukraine ,how it will attack nato ? These like news are western propaganda to spread fear

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 2 months ago (6 children)

    You're talking like they're going to invade, which is not the case. Like before they've sent multiple drones to multiple EU countries it will be some kind of diversion with plausible deniability, followed by wave of disinformation using current spat between Poland and Ukraine to drive the wedge even further between them

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  • [–] 2 points 2 months ago (3 children)

    Non sensible . Russia even doesnt have enough resource to handle Ukraine , why they would diversify their limited resource ? It would just longing the war and exhausted itself . Russia is a sick man and cannot recover at least 20 years .

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 2 months ago (2 children)

    All your questions are answered in article, if you only read it instead of stopping on the title.

    Russian action would almost certainly be cloaked – as in the past – in some scarcely plausible disguise. A drone strike could be blamed on Ukraine or dismissed as an accident. A border incursion could be explained away as a GPS failure or a search-and-rescue mission to retrieve a helicopter that had crashed after inadvertently crossing into Polish airspace.

    The plausible deniability route is not Russia’s only escalation option, defence officials say. Russia could instead simulate air strikes on Poland using zombie missiles, decoy drones or signal spoofing to create ghost tracks on radar screens, forcing the Polish military to activate air defences.

    A fourth Baltic security source confirmed to The Telegraph that such plans were under discussion in Moscow. Russia may then attempt to claim the provocation was carried out by Ukraine afterwards.

    Russia would count on the fact that, instead of opening fire on Russian or Belarusian soldiers in such a situation, Poland would be forced by the US to negotiate with Russia or Belarus rather than respond forcefully, Polish sources told Onet.

    A scenario in which the Russians would withdraw from Poland as a result of those negotiations, rather than because they were forced to do so by military means, would be seen as a win from Moscow’s perspective.

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  • [–] 1 point 2 months ago (1 child)

    So, Russia does not have the power to attack NATO. I am talking about a full-scale war. but it will continue to attack with alternative solutions

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 2 months ago*

    Of course they don't, article itself mentions it. That's why they want to use diverse attacks to sow doubt between allies and prove NATO doesn't work and in the end each country has to act on its own. Good old divide and conquer

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  • [–] 1 point 2 months ago (1 child)

    simulated air strikes that would force Poland to activate its air defence systems.

    This is the only thing the article is claiming as a possibility that is even somewhat credible, though I wouldn't call it an actual attack.

    An actual attack on Poland right now would be insane, it would just galvanize the country into supporting Ukraine, or join the battle themselves.

    This is more than likely just propaganda to help smooth over the recent spat between the two.

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 2 months ago

    You just talking out of your ass, I'm from Poland and attack on Poland wouldn't galvanise shit, it would be blamed on Ukraine because of current diplomatic situation where people are even more anti Ukraine then during drone incursion year ago and that was first moment during this conflict when Poles genuinely turned in Ukraine due to misinformation. Even now only on report of this things people already saying it's Ukraine planing it because they want Poland to enter the war because Ukraine is losing and all kind of nonsense

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  • [–] 0 points 2 months ago

    Russia only exists because China allows it. When China thinks Russia is sufficiently weakened, they will just move in an take it.

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