Yeah, but official public records are important too, they shouldn't be littered with vandalism, just because these guys have no notion of permanent reality.

How does calling the bets on those platforms actually work? Is it employees that need to decide which outcome happened? And can anyone make a bet? If so, how do they keep up with all the bets and even just knowing that a bet is ready to be called?

[edit]
ok, i decided to research this myself (so much for the wisdom of crowds).

some platforms have an admin pick what option was the outcome.

And some have a board of traders that vote on what the outcome was(maybe with votes weighted by how many shares of some token they own…)

so yeah, some admin on the platform or a few users are the ultimate arbitrer of truth, which sounds stupid to me. Especially since any ambiguity of the wording of the bet is up to them to figure out.

this page had nice examples of kalshi and polymarket resolution 'failing'. Was also not surprised that polymarket uses crypto for resolution, of course there's crypto involved in this somehow… it really fits the online gambling theme

I get where you’re coming from, but the only ones that lose here are the suckers that think this is a fair game.

Predictionmarkets don’t work like a casino or sports betting. They are not the classic „house“ that you bet against in a casino, it’s more like a broker selling you futures on commodities. They earn their money via transaction fees for facilitating bets between people. So they win, no matter if the wager is rigged or not. This means that they probably don’t really care about it, or any other rigged bets at all. I would guess they might even like it, because every time there is a big article about some rigged bet like this, they get free press exposure.

Edited for clarity

It’s not against the rules, lfg

Someone should place big bets on the destruction of Polymarket.

There was already a journalist who received death threats, because of their reporting on the war. Someone had made bets on the missiles being fired in Israel, and the journalist reported on it. They were threatened and told to change their story, because a lot of people stood to lose a lot of money on a bet if the report was accurate.

Naturally, the journalist reported on it instead of changing the story.

The TL;DR is that the reporter noted that a missile had struck an open field in Israel. It was a relatively straightforward report, because nobody had been injured and no infrastructure had been damaged. But then the reporter started getting threats. They were trying to get him to change his report, to say that missile fragments had struck the field instead. They had bet that Israel wouldn’t be struck by a missile within a certain timeframe. And if the missile was intercepted, (meaning fragments had struck the field) then the bet wouldn’t count it as a successful strike. So by reporting that a missile had struck that field, the reporter was going to make them lose their bet.

Or start a war...

One of the soldiers that abducted the president of Venezuela bet on the operation.

How long will it be before someone commits a violent crime in order to win their polymarket wager?

Is that the kind of thing people might bet on?

So what you're saying is I need to make a third group, the one who predicts how the one who takes from the first will influence Polymarket.

You're a genius.

A friend of mine made some profit by having bet on Brexit and Trump in 2016.

Yeah, it's horrifying and deeply sad to marry gambling (which already creates a fair amount of misery for some) and real-world events that cause human misery. Fuck poly market. It should be regulated out of existence

Polymarket clains there is no house, but they still act as "betting against" on some outlandish bets.

https://youtu.be/A654vzQTGbQ

They’ve pulled back from any sort of “death market” because they’re terrified of facing regulation.

Yeah, markets are inequality machines, betting is just the extreme case.