this post was submitted on 15 Jul 2023
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I'm an AI software engineer and I predict that most AI startups being funded today will die::Here's how to tell which ones could make it.

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[–] [email protected] 103 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (2 children)
[–] [email protected] 27 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Not to mention all things end. eventually.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 year ago

Not my love for god

/s

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Your AI achieved superintelligence and achieved the singularity, and you think your startup is going great, but then trillions of years later it fails due to the heat death of the universe.

[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 year ago (3 children)

I predict, over 90% of all people will die. There, I said it.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 year ago

Everyone exposed to air and water will eventually die. Doctors won’t tell you this.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 year ago

Don’t scare me like that.

[–] [email protected] 48 points 1 year ago (2 children)

I’m not an AI software engineer and I could have told you that - not only is it true for all startups of any kind, but given the insane level of hype around AI, it’s obvious

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago (1 children)

AI is the new crypto. Idiots will be fleeced. Schemes will be hatched. Vaporware will vape.

In 2-5 years there will likely be some Intel- or Google-like companies with big controlling stakes in AI. Investing in the them then will likely be a good idea. Trying to figure out now which of the 61,000 AI startups will become them, and hoping to win the lottery in the process, is a fool's game.

Also a non-zero chance that AI itself is all vaporware and the "industry" fizzles out completely.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

I thought you were comparing their utility as technologies and I was going to disagree, but as investment opportunities you have a good point.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

It will be higher for AI than other industries specifically because of the hype cycle.

[–] [email protected] 30 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

I guess he could leave out AI. Most startup will die. There was a time they use to say 9 out of 10

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 year ago
[–] [email protected] 27 points 1 year ago (1 children)

No shit sherlock, most startups fail regardless of the industry.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago

In other news: the sky is blue, water is wet, the sun is hot and u/spez sucks.

[–] [email protected] 17 points 1 year ago (1 children)

The porn ones will probably make it

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

I disagree. There will definitely be porn ones that make it, but there's a lot of AI porn startups.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 year ago

I'm a theoretical physicist and I can predict most dropped objects will fall to the floor

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 year ago

They're planning a numbers game, if one out of a thousand grows a thousand times as large, you're still money up

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Is this a hot take? 99% of all startups die within the first few years.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago

"here's how to tell which one" so this guy has solved VC investment. Got it.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago

I'm a human and i predict that most humans alive today will die

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago

What, you're saying startups (known to go bankrupt within months in most cases) will go bankrupt? I can hardly contain my gasps! What incredible insight. /s

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago

Crashing open doors :
most business go bankrupt,
most innovations we try fail,
most of Nature's attempts are ludicrous.
Still ...we shall try again and again.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Imho, the only guys who have a chance to develop an AI for general use are those funded by Google, Microsoft or Elon. The Big Tech guys with deep pockets, who are prepared to burn cash for the long run. Others need to find their niche.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 year ago (1 children)

And those are the guys who should be the least trusted with such an AI.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago

Nobody can be trusted with such an AI. That's why, hopefully, there won't be one dominant player.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

Who cares, nost of them are front ends for ChatGPT anyway

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