This lines up with my experience as well and what you've described is very close to how I work with LLM agents. The people bragging about 10x are either blowing smoke or producing garbage. I mean, I guess in some limited contexts I might get 10x out of taking a few seconds to write a prompt vs a couple of minutes of manual hunting and typing. But on the whole, software engineering is about so much more than just coding and those things have become no less important these days.

But the people acting like the tech is a useless glorified Markov generator are also out of their mind. There are some real gains to be had by properly using the tech. Especially once you've laid the groundwork by properly documenting things like your architecture and dependencies for LLM consumption. I'm not saying this to try to sell anybody on it but I really, truly, can't imagine that we're ever going back to the before times. Maybe there's a bubble burst like the dotcom bubble but, like the internet, agentic coding is here to stay.