flatpak seems to be adopted by everybody who's not directly affiliated with canonical. Which is only about half of the linux desktop space. Snaps are controversial, but I like them. Currently I'm on Ubuntu with 23.04 and snaps, they work really fine for me. Most of my VMs now use OpenSUSE Tumbleweed with flatpaks though, and that works really nicely as well. 'Normal' users probably don't care, so I'd say that both packaging formats will slowly replace everything else, but only snaps can form a complete system. Flatpaks cannot be used without apt/pacman/rpm/zypper/whatever. Edit: the main benefit of moving to universal repos is consistency. Flatpaks and snaps on ubuntu work exactly the same as snaps and flatpaks on arch, there are no version differences, no differences in dependencies.
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The snap install I did of nextcloud on my server was sooooo painless compared to manually doing it or the AIO docker crap they have. It was a trivial install with snap. Upgrades have been easy peasy.
I only use ubuntu on my servers, but for this specific use case I've been very happy with the snap.
I don't think the average user cares tbh. I have OpenSuSe, Fedora, Win 11, RHDesktop currently running. From an admin level though, so long as it's well documented, transparent, and standard packages are available and maintained, I'm happy to continue to learn and be adaptable
Linux is Linux - Nah.. there will be distros like Arch where you can just use the AUR (someone started a project to bring AUR like functionality to other distros), and there will be distros that go mostly or all in on other packaging methods. There's also wrappers like topgrade for those of us that don't want to bother with multiple commands to update all.