Experts [β¦] have updated 2024 YR4βs chance of impacting the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032 from 1.7% as of late February to 3.8% based on the Webb data and observations from ground-based telescopes.
So still a pretty small chance.
this post was submitted on 05 Apr 2025
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Space is pretty big after all. The fact we're even at a human-readable percentage is unlikely to start with.
What happens to the moon if it gets hit ? How big is YR4 ?
Another crater. Not exactly unusual on the moon. It might upset some theories on crater formation because of the opportunities to observe an impact live. Any moon missions in the vicinity would have a bad time, obviously. Finally there might be some meteor showers on earth. Unlikely that anything big would make it to the ground.
Thank you!
Article says that it's about 60m in size (I assume that's the diameter). Moon's gonna be fine. Let's hope we don't have humans up there when it hits though. Although by then we'll have a much better estimate, so maybe we'll be 99.9% sure that it doesn't hit. Or that it does, time will tell
Thanks!
Two points clearly covered in the article. Read
Thank you for the kind words!
Anytime!
Earth gets a debris ring, which will look sick. But then we lose the tides and have a couple hundred years of meteor showers. And we get to rebuild our satellite system from scratch.
/uneducated guess.
Now I wish we had rings like Saturn
People have done renders of what that might look like from the surface.
Super interesting to visualize, thank you !