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this post was submitted on 22 Dec 2024
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You can read it here:
Thanks -- it has been clear enough that an another AI winter is coming. Likely latest when the Global Financial Crisis 2 is here.
But the line must go up!
The article does mention that when the AI bubble is going down, the big players will use the defunct AI infrastructure and add it to their cloud business to get more of the market that way and, in the end, make the line go up.
That's not what the article says.
They're arguing that AI hype is being used as a way of driving customers towards cloud infrastructure over on-prem. Once a company makes that choice, it's very hard to get them to go back.
They're not saying that AI infrastructure specifically can be repurposed, just that in general these companies will get some extra cloud business out of the situation.
AI infrastructure is highly specialized, and much like ASICs for the blockchain nonsense, will be somewhere between "very hard" and "impossible" to repurpose.
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Big tech is out of ideas and needs AI to work in order to drive growth.
To have a bubble you need companies with no clear path to monetization, being over-valued to an extreme degree. This leaves me wondering : what company specifically ? Are they talking about nVidia ? OpenAI ? MidJourney ? Or the slew of LLM-powered SaaS products that have started appearing ? How exactly are we defining "over-valuation" here ? Are we talking about the tech industry as a whole ?
We often invite the comparison to the DotCom bubble but that's apples to oranges. You had companies making social networks for dogs or similar bullshit, valued in the billions and getting a ticker at the stock market before making a single dime. Or companies with outlandish promises such as delivering to any home in the US, in <1 hour, for a low price, and building warehouses by the hundreds before having a storefront. What would be the 2024 equivalent ? If a bubble is about to deflate then there should be dozens of comparable examples.
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