[...]
Between 2019 and 2024, we analysed over 5 million Telegram posts published by nearly 100 pro-government outlets. These ranged from official state agencies such as TASS and RIA Novosti, to television propagandists like Vladimir Solovyov, as well as various anonymously run Telegram channels aligned with the Kremlin.
The pattern is strikingly consistent. Hostility intensifies ahead of repressive legislation, peaks during moments of political uncertainty, and is channelled towards groups least able to defend themselves.
[...]
Weaponising homophobia [...] In 2019, 46% of posts referring to LGBT people or women’s rights were negative. By 2022, that figure had climbed to 65% [...] The shift coincided with legislative changes. In 2020, Russia amended its constitution to define marriage exclusively as a union between a man and a woman. According to a lawyer from the LGBT advocacy group Vykhod, who asked to remain anonymous, the escalation in hostile coverage was partly linked to preparations for these amendments. The state set the tone, and the media followed [...]
Migrants as a political target [...] the share of negative reporting on migrants rose from around 22% in 2020 and early 2021 to 34% between August 2021 and October 2021. In other words, every third mention of migrants or ethnic minorities carried a negative tone [...] This first major wave of anti-migrant sentiment coincided with discussions of a new migration law that proposed expanded digital surveillance and simplified deportation procedures. Valentina Chupik, a human rights lawyer who provides free legal assistance to migrants, believes the media campaign was designed to smooth the law’s passage [...] [Statistics tell that] migrants commit crimes at roughly half the rate of Russian citizens [...]
Normalising repression [...] Before 2020 [when Alexey Navalny was poisoned], only 30% to 35% of opposition-related posts mentioned searches, arrests or trials. Even during the mass protests of 2019, the figure rarely exceeded 45%. By mid-2021, it had reached around 50%, as Navalny’s organisations were labelled extremist and independent media outlets began to be designated “foreign agents” [...] Hate speech escalated alongside repression. From late 2020 to late 2021, the share of posts containing explicit hostility — insults, approval of repression, dehumanising language — nearly doubled, from 7.5% to 13%. Notably, this did not happen immediately after the poisoning. Instead, it began after Navalny returned to Russia [...]
Political scientist Ilya Matveyev suggests the delay was intentional. “The authorities were wary of provoking strong emotions,” he says. “Open hatred might have turned Navalny into a martyr.”
“If you cannot rely on genuine popular support, you must demonstrate repression as publicly as possible.”
Manufactured enemies
The mobilisation of hatred is a familiar feature of authoritarian systems. According to Matveyev, it has become essential to the Russian political model. “Everything rests on hate,” he says. “Support is manufactured through the image of a shared enemy."
The long-term consequences may be severe. [Political scientist Yekaterina] Schulmann warns that war has normalised violence and collective aggression. “Large numbers of people have learned how to use weapons, how to participate in organised violence. Where will that energy go once the war ends?”
One of the most likely scenarios, she warns, is a functional degradation of the political system, accompanied by pockets of social brutalisation — a fragmentation in which violence becomes localised, habitual and increasingly detached from formal political control.
There is, however, room for cautious optimism. Propaganda narratives often fail to take deep root. Tolerance continues to grow in Russia’s major cities, Matveyev argues, but it has to be constantly suppressed. “Homophobia is not a natural state,” he says. “It requires continuous reinforcement.”
The same logic applies to migrants. If state-sponsored hostility disappears, Chupik says, attitudes will shift quickly. “Without propaganda, people stop hating.”