this post was submitted on 03 Dec 2023
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Death to NATO
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This has been a decade of Western powers realizing they aren't militarily invincible. I was told that NATO weapons would obliterate the inferior Russian hordes, Americans would dominate the Taliban entirely, that Israel would grind Palestine into dust within the first week.
Calling Russia's bluff in regards to NATO joining Ukraine is going to be remembered by historians as the pivotal event of the 21st century in my opinion. Until then, it was simply assumed that NATO was the strongest military force in the world, and that it could not be challenged. Even the humiliation that US suffered in Afghanistan wasn't enough to dispel the myth. And then we saw that Russia could take a NATO proxy all on its own, and that full NATO backing didn't make a lick of difference. Not only that, but it turned out that the G7 couldn't isolate Russia economically either. All of a sudden the sanctions regime fizzled and we're now seeing large parts of the world moving away from the dollar.
Now that NATO has depleted itself in Ukraine, it's a question of how much actual support can even be provided to Israel. The reality is that Israel doesn't have a huge industrial base of its own the way Russia does, and if they end up getting mired in Gaza, they will quickly run through their existing stocks of weapons at which point they could see themselves in an operational crisis. We might actually see Palestine finally freed at the end of all this.
I vacillate on this point. Isn'treal, with US backing, has more than enough bombs and fuel to completely ethnically cleanse Gaza, which I believe is its primary goal. What it lacks is the ability to wage an actual war against a state like Iran. Iran is never going to start that war, and in any case, Isn'treal has nukes that it wouldn't bat an eye about using.
There are limits to what you can do with bombing in practice. If you want to hold territory then you have to put boots on the ground sooner or later. And of course, Hamas now has a very extensive tunnel system all over Gaza. This is a great watch on how difficult it is to counter such tunnels. So, all IDF can do is just massacre civilians, and then the whole world sees these atrocities making it very difficult for their western sponsors to continue providing support.
I also don't expect that Iran would want an open war, I think it's much more likely that there's going to be a lot of asymmetric warfare happening. We're also starting to see attacks on shipping from Yemen which could cause serious economic damage in the long term as well.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy: