157
Bill Gates feels Generative AI has plateaued, says GPT-5 will not be any better
(indianexpress.com)
this post was submitted on 02 Dec 2023
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This is short-sighted.
The jump to GPT 3.5 was preceded by the same general misunderstanding (we've reached the limit of what generative pre-trained transformers can do, we've reached diminishing returns, ECT.) and then a relatively small change (AFAIK it was a couple additional layers of transforms and a refinement of the training protocol) and suddenly it was displaying behaviors none of the experts expected.
Small changes will compound when factored over billions of nodes, that's just how it goes. It's just that nobody knows which changes will have that scale of impact, and what emergent qualities happen as a result.
It's ok to say "we don't know why this works" and also "there's no reason to expect anything more from this methodology". But I wouldn't dismiss further improvements as a forgone possibility.
Another way to think of this is feedback from humans will refine results. If enough people tell it that Toronto is not the capital of Canada it will start biasing toward Ottawa, for example. I have a feeling this is behind the search engine roll out.
ChatGPT doesn't learn like that though, does it? I thought it was "static" with its training data.
You can finetune LLMs using smaller datasets, or with RLHF (reinforcement learning from human feedback) wherein people can give ratings to responses and the model can be either "rewarded" or "penalized" based off of the ratings for a given output. This retrains the LLM to produce outputs that people prefer.
Active Learning Models. Though public exposure can eaily fuck it up, without adult supervision. With proper supervision though, there's promise.
So it will always have the biases of the supervisors
Bias is inevitable. Whether it is AI or any other knowledge based system. We just have to be cognizant of it and try to remedy it.