this post was submitted on 07 Jul 2023
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The planet's average temperature hit 17.23 degrees Celsius on Thursday, surpassing the 17.18C record set on Tuesday and equalled on Wednesday.

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[–] [email protected] 169 points 1 year ago (3 children)

I think it's important to note that this also coincides with the start of what's predicted to be a super El Nino (we've had a couple of those already). If the model holds true then 2024 will be even hotter than this year, and (again, if the model predictions are right) will shatter all previous records. Then come 2025 or 2026 average temperatures will settle down a bit.

The issue isn't the seasonal or even the yearly hottest temps. It's the overall trend that's a concern (which is what the article is talking about), which are trending up.

Not sure if any of that made sense.

[–] [email protected] 44 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Makes sense, but the idea of a "super" El Nino is a symptom of the same problem. Super implies unusual or abnormal, and it's only getting worse.

[–] [email protected] 39 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Well yes, the super El Nino's are part of climate change. They are getting worse each time. All I was saying is that it's not a straight year over year increase. It comes in waves or heaves in a periodic manner.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I thought the impact of climate change on El Nino was not really settled (notably due to the erratic nature of the ENSO), do you happen to have a source on that?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

Thanks, I'll have a look!

[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 year ago (1 children)

right so considering we've been seeing alarming loss of ice mass over the last couple of years and we know that has an exponential effect on climate change. We already hit the tipping point just most people didn't realize it.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Ya probably. I'm still hoping that there's some global mechanism that we don't understand yet that will limit or reign in the effects. But that's just wishful thinking.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 year ago

Of course there is a limit. The question is how high it is. For instance, at high enough CO2 concentrations, the greenhouse effect doesn't get much stronger anymore. Also, the more CO2, the faster it dissapears by eroding rocks. That happens on a geological timescale, though.

If we did something to lower temperature, I'd be very worried about the CO2 concentration's other effect: feeling like suffocating all the time.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

The problem is when the temps come back down, climate deniers will go “WhAt HaPpEnEd?”.