Chapotraphouse

[–] aaro@hexbear.net 39 points 2 years ago (2 children)

The CNN poll surveyed 1,003 adults via text message, and only surveyed adults with mobile phones. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

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[–] GorbinOutOverHere@hexbear.net 19 points 2 years ago (2 children)

It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

according to whom tho

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https://www.qualtrics.com/blog/calculating-sample-size/

[–] GaveUp@hexbear.net 39 points 2 years ago (1 child)

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[–] GorbinOutOverHere@hexbear.net 7 points 2 years ago

like im going to trust "qualtrics" and their "math"

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[–] zed_proclaimer@hexbear.net 8 points 2 years ago

Have you taken a statistics class?

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[–] lemmyseizethemeans@lemmygrad.ml 17 points 2 years ago* (2 children)

Ok cool. 1000 people who will answer a text message from unknown. Would you? Again, I know literally zero people who support Israel in this conflict. Got friends up and down the age spectrum, in and outside of the states.

So my poll says 100% of everyone I know wants this shit to end. Facebook, Twitter, insta, all on the same page here.

Somehow American polls always seem to be, ahem, skewed.

Look at those 538 predictions based on 'polling data' on the last several elections.

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[–] zed_proclaimer@hexbear.net 17 points 2 years ago

So my poll says 100% of everyone I know wants this shit to end. Facebook, Twitter, insta, all on the same page here.

This is not how statistics works

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[–] a_blanqui_slate@hexbear.net 14 points 2 years ago (1 child)

Look up i.i.d sampling please for the love of God.

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[–] Nagarjuna@hexbear.net 4 points 2 years ago (1 child)

This wasn't a random sample though

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[–] a_blanqui_slate@hexbear.net 4 points 2 years ago* (1 child)

Maybe not but I don't see anything in their brief methodology section quoted above to indicate it wasn't a random sample of mobile phone users. What makes you think it wasn't?

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[–] Nagarjuna@hexbear.net 7 points 2 years ago (1 child)

A random sample of mobile phone users isn't a random sample, because you're only going to get the people who answer texts from strangers.

It's called "non-response bias" and it's a huge part of the reason political polling doesn't work. It's strong enough to render almost any sample from a phone survey non-representative.

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[–] a_blanqui_slate@hexbear.net 3 points 2 years ago* (1 child)

Yeah I understand that there's a difference between the sampled population and the actual population of interest, but you can't discount the results of on account of that unless you can meaningfully show a non-zero covariance between the response variable and likelihood of non-response.

By all means it's a caveat but it doesn't make these results entirely non-informative.

In any case I cited iid conditions to explain why asking all their friends is certain to produce a useless estimate of the population proportion.

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[–] Nagarjuna@hexbear.net 4 points 2 years ago (1 child)

They know that asking their friends is useless. They were trying to make a point about sampling bias.

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[–] a_blanqui_slate@hexbear.net 4 points 2 years ago (1 child)

To me they were saying this numbers are totally made up.

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[–] Nagarjuna@hexbear.net 3 points 2 years ago (1 child)

If it's not representative, it basically is

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[–] a_blanqui_slate@hexbear.net 3 points 2 years ago (1 child)

A biased estimator is not a meaningless or non-informative estimator.

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[–] lemmyseizethemeans@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 2 years ago

Look at it this way. When the US wants to prosecute a suspect in federal court, where do they generally hold the trials? In the whitest, most affluent part of Virginia. So the jury, while random, is still taken from a specific pool of people who lean a certain way politically.

If you think polling data isn't politically motivated and influenced by sample location, age, and the way the questions are formulated, you're deceiving yourself. What's that saying? There are small lies, big lies, and statistics.

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[–] equinox@hexbear.net 20 points 2 years ago (1 child)

Nice to see the younger ones polled favor Palestine's struggle more

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[–] aaro@hexbear.net 32 points 2 years ago (5 children)

the actual numbers from the poll:

hideshow 10 child comments

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[–] GaveUp@hexbear.net 35 points 2 years ago* (1 child)

Zoomers still at 57% lol stalin-gun-1 stalin-gun-2

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[–] mar_k@hexbear.net 1 point 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

18-34? Gen z adults are 18-25 so that's more millennial than zoomer. Also, smaller subgroups have a bigger margin of error, especially since they only polled 1000 people total (through texts people have to respond to from an unknown number nonetheless)

Not gonna happen, but I'd wanna see a poll on 18-22 yo college students, I'd like to think we're much less pro-Israel seeing we're a lot less likely to get news from mainstream mass media. Completely anecdotal: but I don't know a single person my age that supports Israel, everyone either supports Palestine or are neutral/ignorant. I've seen a ton of my mutuals on social media show support for Palestine too, none for Israel, and I've seen a ton of comments echoing the whole "no one our age supports Israel" sentiment too

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[–] Zuzak@hexbear.net 22 points 2 years ago (1 child)

So the 70% is combining "fully justified" and "partially justified," with the only other options being "not at all justified" or "not sure." There's no option for like "mostly unjustified" so lots of people who both sides the issue - or even favor Palestine! - are likely to say "partially justified," which is a very broad and vague statement.

Another headline you could write from this poll: "Only 27% of young people consider Israel's response justified - compared to 81% of seniors," or "50% of Americans think Israel's response was justified."

Polls are, as always, fake.

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