this post was submitted on 17 Oct 2023
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chapotraphouse
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Remember who they are polling, who answers their landlines, who picks up a phone from 'unknown'
It's boomers, folks
according to whom tho
https://www.qualtrics.com/blog/calculating-sample-size/
like im going to trust "qualtrics" and their "math"
Have you taken a statistics class?
Ok cool. 1000 people who will answer a text message from unknown. Would you? Again, I know literally zero people who support Israel in this conflict. Got friends up and down the age spectrum, in and outside of the states.
So my poll says 100% of everyone I know wants this shit to end. Facebook, Twitter, insta, all on the same page here.
Somehow American polls always seem to be, ahem, skewed.
Look at those 538 predictions based on 'polling data' on the last several elections.
This is not how statistics works
Look up i.i.d sampling please for the love of God.
This wasn't a random sample though
Maybe not but I don't see anything in their brief methodology section quoted above to indicate it wasn't a random sample of mobile phone users. What makes you think it wasn't?
A random sample of mobile phone users isn't a random sample, because you're only going to get the people who answer texts from strangers.
It's called "non-response bias" and it's a huge part of the reason political polling doesn't work. It's strong enough to render almost any sample from a phone survey non-representative.
Yeah I understand that there's a difference between the sampled population and the actual population of interest, but you can't discount the results of on account of that unless you can meaningfully show a non-zero covariance between the response variable and likelihood of non-response.
By all means it's a caveat but it doesn't make these results entirely non-informative.
In any case I cited iid conditions to explain why asking all their friends is certain to produce a useless estimate of the population proportion.
They know that asking their friends is useless. They were trying to make a point about sampling bias.
To me they were saying this numbers are totally made up.
If it's not representative, it basically is
A biased estimator is not a meaningless or non-informative estimator.
Look at it this way. When the US wants to prosecute a suspect in federal court, where do they generally hold the trials? In the whitest, most affluent part of Virginia. So the jury, while random, is still taken from a specific pool of people who lean a certain way politically.
If you think polling data isn't politically motivated and influenced by sample location, age, and the way the questions are formulated, you're deceiving yourself. What's that saying? There are small lies, big lies, and statistics.
Nice to see the younger ones polled favor Palestine's struggle more
the actual numbers from the poll:
Zoomers still at 57% lol
18-34? Gen z adults are 18-25 so that's more millennial than zoomer. Also, smaller subgroups have a bigger margin of error, especially since they only polled 1000 people total (through texts people have to respond to from an unknown number nonetheless)
Not gonna happen, but I'd wanna see a poll on 18-22 yo college students, I'd like to think we're much less pro-Israel seeing we're a lot less likely to get news from mainstream mass media. Completely anecdotal: but I don't know a single person my age that supports Israel, everyone either supports Palestine or are neutral/ignorant. I've seen a ton of my mutuals on social media show support for Palestine too, none for Israel, and I've seen a ton of comments echoing the whole "no one our age supports Israel" sentiment too
So the 70% is combining "fully justified" and "partially justified," with the only other options being "not at all justified" or "not sure." There's no option for like "mostly unjustified" so lots of people who both sides the issue - or even favor Palestine! - are likely to say "partially justified," which is a very broad and vague statement.
Another headline you could write from this poll: "Only 27% of young people consider Israel's response justified - compared to 81% of seniors," or "50% of Americans think Israel's response was justified."
Polls are, as always, fake.
tbf anything except "not at all justified" is a monstrous take so the poll still works if you're happy to confirm more reasons to hate amerikans (
)
this kills the revolutionary optimism
White college grads at 4% “not at all justified” But under <$50k leads with 12%
And then… liberals lead all political categories with 11%
i love it when things confirm my biases