The moral character of the proletariat on the aggregate seems like the only way to make a deterministic prediction on such a thing. Am I mistaken about that?

Well it has never happened in the imperial core really, so I guess we don't know. But I think generally, the masses must understand that liberalism and their far right populism isn't a viable option. Clearly we aren't there yet in the west, I think it will be clearer in the coming decades though, when the states are materially conditioned to cooperate with the East.