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Bulletins and International News Discussion from October 12th to October 18th, 2026 - US Unsanctions Russian Diesel / Ansarallah, Iran Step Up Strikes / Southeast Asia Extreme Wildfires Continue (thelemmy.club)
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A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Students in front of the Mujahidin Grand Mosque in West Kalimantan, Indonesia, with an ominous, thick haze obscuring vision.

My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preambleThe last week has been quite a busy one for world energy markets. The first big piece was the reveal that the US is removing sanctions on Russian fuel exports until April 2027. This has been yet another fascinating collision of the Ukraine and Iran Wars, and, of course, another example of all the complicated situations that countries that are otherwise geopolitically aligned can get themselves into, as obviously Russia being allowed to export more diesel does bend the curve on shortages to a degree. China "helping" the West by reducing their demand for foreign oil purchases for much of this year as they drew from their enormous domestic oil reserves is another example of this kind of dynamic. Given how much Russia has helped Iran - especially now, with large increases of Caspian Sea vessels helping Iran mitigate some of the blockade's impact - I don't view this as a betrayal, but more of a unfortunately necessary geopolitical tactic, particularly if increased Russian state revenue lets them defeat the NATO-backed forces they're fighting a bit easier. Regardless, it would be very unfortunate if most of Russia's diesel went directly to the US and not to other struggling countries (not least among them, Cuba), as that would give the US a bit more road to kick the can down.

Ukraine has not taken this news well. It can be hard to figure out to what degree Trump is using kayfabe in any particular situation, but Ukraine immediately striking a Russian diesel export station (to which Russia retaliated by knocking out power throughout much of Kiev) seems to have genuinely annoyed him, e.g. saying that Ukraine should get a new leader. He also tried his classic move of willing a ceasefire into existence purely by social media decree. This worked during the Twelve Day War, but not here - at least not yet. I'm currently cautiously disregarding rumors that the US is going to actually take away intelligence or material support from Ukraine. It's not impossible, and would actually be another data point in the trend of the US withdrawing from Europe (with their bombers evacuating their UK base very recently too), but this antagonization of Russia has been a plot in the making for over a decade, and I would be surprised if Trump was allowed by the powers that be to interrupt this plan in any meaningful way. Perhaps there will be some largely symbolic move instead.

Over in West Asia, Ansarallah is tidying up their encirclement of Taiz, with the noose tightening around PLC forces. The Saudi counteroffensive was very Ukrainian; i.e. it existed mostly as a media phenomenon, but somehow even more half-hearted. Their sole territorial acquisition up to me writing this is 10-20 miles of largely empty coastal plains and an airstrip that Ansarallah, without an airforce, has no real use of. In return for Saudi bombing, Ansarallah has continued hitting oil infrastructure, and additionally escalated by striking terminals at King Khalid airport. Ansarallah gave several warnings to immediately evacuate everybody inside, and the Saudis did not even bother to sound the alarm of an incoming missile, which is emblematic of their desperation to maintain the illusion of the pre-war status quo. The strike on Terminal 3 killed about a dozen people and injured a few hundred. While Saudi airlines are trying to maintain operations, several Western airliners are pausing flights for now, which mirrors the air blockade that the Saudis have forced on Yemen for several years. Meanwhile, Iran has escalated strikes on tankers both inside the Strait of Hormuz and far outside it, as it truly starts to slam the hammer down on what limited illegal transits were making it through. This comes in the form of both missile/drone strikes and naval mines and will keep physical oil prices elevated well into the short and medium terms if maintained. Additionally, the US continues its reported buildup of forces for another try at striking Iran, possibly before the midterms, but I sincerely don't know what they could possibly hope to achieve beyond trying to get more votes from chest-thumping jingoistic morons while yet further degrading their position in the region militarily and economically.

Meanwhile, over in Southeast Asia, air pollution has dramatically increased over the past few months due to manmade wildfires in Indonesian forests and peatlands, which were caused by profit-seeking slash-and-burn farmers clearing land with fire, and then further exacerbated by one of the worst El Ninos on record. This bourgeois idiocy has caused untold environmental damage, hundreds of thousands of cases of respiratory illnesses throughout Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore, prolonged closures of major institutions like schools, and required the distribution of oxygen cylinders throughout parts of the populace to try and keep them alive and at least vaguely healthy.

Last week's thread is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

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https://archive.ph/2HaGl

Pentagon, Lockheed weigh multi-year F-35 production, sustainment deal

One source familiar with the negotiations expressed doubt that Lockheed "can successfully propose something that demonstrates long-term cost savings."

more

The Pentagon and Lockheed Martin are in discussions over a mega-deal for the company’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter that could span up to a decade and include both production and maintenance for the stealth jet, according to people familiar with the negotiations. Officials have weighed an F-35 multi-year procurement contract for years, and the latest push comes as the Trump administration seeks to expand the use of long-term agreements to buy key weapons like munitions. A successful deal covering both production and sustainment of the tri-variant fighter could be worth tens of billions of dollars. “There’s been talk about a 10-year, multi-year buy that would include the production as well as sustainment,” Matt Milas, president of Honeywell Aerospace’s defense division, told Breaking Defense in a September interview. Honeywell is a key supplier for the F-35 program. A source familiar with the negotiations, who requested anonymity since they were not authorized to speak publicly about the matter, confirmed ongoing talks around a multi-year production and sustainment deal. But they expressed skepticism of its efficacy. A multi-year procurement “makes sense where the department has seen success with munitions contracts. It makes less sense for aircraft lot buys” — particularly because some aspects of F-35 modernization are still in development, the person said. They added that “the complexities of sustainment present multiple unique challenges.”

Milas said the potential agreement would potentially include “bulk buys” of spare parts, with the increased flow of components beginning around the jet’s 21st production lot, expected in roughly three years. Increasing the supply of spare parts is viewed as a key way to help raise the fighter’s dismal readiness rates. Proponents of multi-year agreements argue that they give industry more predictability, allowing companies to make long-term investments and leverage economies of scale to reduce costs. Milas said the “big benefit” of an F-35 multi-year agreement would largely be on the sustainment side, since the jet’s production rate is expected to remain at 156 annually. “It’s more about the sustainment and how do you get more spares and get that bulk buy up front so that you’re not going year-to-year or small lots,” he said. It’s unclear if the production and sustainment agreements would be linked or structured as separate arrangements, or whether they would stretch the same length of time. In a statement to Breaking Defense, a Lockheed spokesperson said the company “continues to advocate for a multi-year contracting approach which would provide additional stability for the F-35 industrial base. As demonstrated with other successful programs, this would enable predictable production rates, cost efficiency, and continuous modernization essential to maintaining air superiority and warfighter readiness.” The company referred all further inquiries to the US government. Spokespeople for the F-35 Joint Program Office and Pentagon declined to comment on negotiations.

A New Version Of A PBL?

Lockheed has previously pushed for a larger sustainment deal in the form of a performance-based logistics (PBL) contract spanning five years. Such agreements essentially pay contractors based on outcomes like equipment availability or readiness rates, and at one point company officials were confident a PBL deal would be reached for the F-35 by the end of 2023. But lawmakers have required the Pentagon to certify that any PBL agreement would either reduce maintenance costs or increase readiness, a hurdle officials were unable to clear.

lol, "performance-based" logistics that don't increase performance cap-think

The world’s largest defense contractor is once again backing a long-term sustainment contract, according to a company official — but it may not formally be a PBL. “A multi-year performance-based contract is still in discussion. I wouldn’t necessarily call it a PBL,” Dina Halvorsen, vice president of F-35 global sustainment at Lockheed, said in a Sept. 14 briefing with reporters. “We are looking at advocating for a multi-year agreement for sustainment on the F-35 program.” But the source familiar with the negotiations characterized the proposal as “PBL by another name.” The person expressed doubt that Lockheed “can successfully propose something that demonstrates long-term cost savings” and noted that congressional approval for a multi-year deal has still not been granted. The fiscal 2027 defense authorization bill helmed by the Senate Armed Services Committee includes language that would permit the Pentagon to enter into multi-year procurement contracts for the F-35. The House version of the bill includes a similar provision, with some additional guardrails. For one, it would not authorize multi-year F-35 procurement until the defense secretary certifies that the contract also includes “the full complement of initial spare parts and alternate mission equipment for each aircraft to be procured under the contract.” The Pentagon must also demonstrate that the multi-year contract achieves cost savings of at least 5 percent.

Neither version of the bill explicitly mentions or authorizes a multi-year sustainment agreement, potentially leaving a key piece of the broader proposal unresolved. Both the House and Senate will need to hammer out agreed upon language before Congress passes the finalized bill. The F-35 program is projected to last until the 2080s, and sustainment accounts for a vast portion of its nearly $2 trillion lifecycle cost estimate. Improving the jet’s mission capable rates is a leading focus for the program, as previous government watchdog reports have found that readiness hampered by a lack of depot capacity, shortages of spare parts and insufficient access for military maintainers to the jet’s technical data. More than 1,000 F-35s have been delivered to date. But over the last two years, many newly delivered jets have been held for training as officials struggle to clear a new upgrade for combat.

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