I grew up in Florida and most houses have in ground pools, I had swim classes in elementary school and they've expanded that program AFAIK, and people with swimming pools go out of their way to make sure their kids can swim - while I'm sure they're not widespread, infant swim classes are a thing. I was already a strong swimmer at five, I'm pretty sure I was water skiing in a local lake at that age, lol.

I agree. I grew up in a place with very, very hot summers and open irrigation canals for farming; we had multiple kids die every year, many who knew how to swim but weren't strong swimmers. Even pool deaths happened every year, and those are fenced in by law. We had PSAs every year for both, it was a big issue.

Most kids don't have access to open bodies of water, so most kids don't drown. That doesn't translate to a valid risk assessment of drowning for kids that do have access and opportunity for it.