A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of the first nuclear icebreaker ever built, the Lenin, which entered service in 1957 in the USSR and decommissioned in 1989. It is now a museum ship in Murmansk. I just think it's neat.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preambleThe last week has had a lot of Trump admin dipshittery that isn't important enough to be worth remarking on, so I'm just going to skip right past all that. The sanctions campaign against Iran appears to have stalled before it even left the starting line, with China saying that, nope, they aren't going to cut off their ally for the sake of their enemy. From what I've gathered from Naked Capitalism's (albeit limited) reporting on the state of Iran's economy, the impression I get is that while inflation is running kinda wild, everything else, including state revenues, are doing sufficiently well that there isn't going to be an economic collapse this year nor probably next year if we assume a continued no-deal situation over Hormuz.

The underlying geopolitical situation has had some interesting little developments. Iran and Oman appears to have worked out their plan for joint control over Hormuz. Ansarallah is continuing their explosive campaign against the Saudis, who are now begging the US for help. Additionally, the ever-barking never-biting Türkiye is showing some signs that they might soon, finally, after three years of witnessing outright genocide, do 1 (one) (the first numerical digit) action that isn't to the Zionist's direct benefit, by putting up a modicum of resistance in defence of their puppet in Syria; but, quite frankly, I'm not holding my breath on anything truly substantial happening while Erdogan's in charge.

The state of oil flows in and around Hormuz are very hotly debated right now. Many of the oil flow numbers can be dismissed out of hand because they aren't reflective of the reality of Iranian control and vision of the strait. Due to the narrowness of the strait, full visual coverage of the ships travelling through the channel can be achieved with technology no more advanced than a dozen people with binoculars and a not-especially-tall mountain. However, figures that are around 3-5 million barrels per day (compared to the pre-war 20 million per day) seems plausible when including Iran allowing some allied vessels out (notably Iraqi and Chinese vessels, among others). This, plus China's rather odd actions in the oil market over the last six months, have resulted in the US's SPR now draining at "only" 4-6 million barrels per week, compared to 8-9 earlier in the war. However, the war's impact on fertilizer and diesel stockpiles and prices are now unignorable even to those with their heads in the sand, with anxiety steadily building in the mainstream media about food crises next year.

Meanwhile, Trump has decided to pick fights with Canada due to their strange unwillingness to graciously hand over their sovereignty to the US, with the two countries now in a tariff war. That being said, oil seems to be one product that neither side wants to fight over: the US needs a producer, and Canada needs a customer. The only other country in the vicinity with major oil reserves is Venezuela, who has been in the news a lot lately for precisely this reason, but they simply don't have the production to do much of anything to alleviate the US's stockpile issues and likely still won't by the time Trump has left office, and so they can be safely dismissed as a significant player in this ongoing global energy conflict.

On the subject of naval trade routes, a fascinating development is that Russia has finally unveiled the Northern Sea Route as a regular maritime passage, with a small fleet of eight Chinese vessels taking the route as a test run in mid-August. From Shanghai to Hamburg, the route is a little over 7000 nautical miles and goes through no chokepoints (though I suppose the Bering Strait could hypothetically become one), compared to the Suez route which is nearly 11,000 nautical miles and goes through three chokepoints (Malacca, Bab el-Mandab, Suez). Russia has the world's only nuclear icebreaker fleet, and the increased power from those reactors is necessary to provide the sheer force to break up the ice along the route, making them even more uniquely situated to benefit from the route. Many countries, China foremost among them, have identified the advantage of not being subject to chokepoints and hostile waters as the US navy continues its rapid transition to outright piracy, so it'll be interesting to see to what extent the route is adopted in the coming years.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] 62 points 2 days ago* (2 children)

https://archive.ph/xHM1G

After Epic Fury, Navy may need an extra $8 billion to be solvent, CNO says

Amid combat operations and related efforts to clear mines and open sea lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, all while sustaining a naval blockade, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle estimates the Navy needs between $6 and $8 billion above what was budgeted for the current fiscal year “to be whole and solvent for [Fiscal Year] 26,” he told reporters at a round-table event on Wednesday.

more

Delivering his State of the Navy address in Norfolk, Virginia, later that evening, Caudle said more than 27,000 sailors and more than two dozen ships had supported combat operations in America’s conflict with Iran. “Think about the scale of what your sailors accomplished,” he said.**

uh... not a lot, evidently?

“We brought together naval forces from waterfronts on both coasts.” In addition to operations, Caudle said costs for personnel are ballooning with what the Navy said are record numbers of reenlistments while in combat theater, which comes with unplanned bonuses to dole out and military moves to fund. “What does that come out of legally? There’s only one place really that can come out of for me, and that’s my [facilities] readiness sustainment modernization account,” Caudle said. “That goes right to the heart of your CNO, because that’s the foundry account, and so that thwarts some of the work I’m trying to do with unaccompanied barracks and other things.” Among Caudle’s most emphasized stateside pursuits is his “No Sailor Lives Afloat” initiative, which aims to move unaccompanied sailors living on ships into shore-based housing. In his address, he said the Navy had successfully moved more than 6,000 sailors off ships and was in the process of investing more than $375 million across 95 different construction projects for barracks and housing, chow facilities and gyms. A Thursday report from The Guardian contained accounts, denied by the Navy, that combat spending was forcing the service to shift funds from payroll accounts, which then had to be backfilled by accounts earmarked for future spending.

Meanwhile, Caudle said the Navy had to replenish its missile stockpiles and grow in both personnel and ship production to meet readiness targets for a scenario involving multiple conflicts. Regarding increasing production of munitions including the Tomahawk and SM-6 missile, he said the military had to demonstrate stable demand with its own funding. “What we’ve recognized is this has to be a risk-sharing venture. The way we buy down risk for them to refacilitize, recapitalize, start more shifts is to give them longer contracts,” Caudle said, adding that the goal was to standardize contracts of at least seven years. “And what we’re seeing is a fundamental shift already with those levels of commitments and orders. Tomahawk production’s up, SM-6 production’s up, and you’re already seeing the fruits of this.” In June, the White House requested $67.1 billion in supplemental funding for the Defense Department to replenish depleted munitions and cover the cost of months of combat in Iran. In testifying before Congress in July about the request, a combative Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth was grilled by lawmakers about the conflict, undertaken without consulting Congress, and the unclear objectives of the costly war.

Meanwhile, the defense budget request for Fiscal Year 2027 nears a historic $1.5 trillion, an increase of more than 40% over the previous year. “I don’t think we should be offended by $1.5 trillion,” Caudle said, adding that the figure didn’t even reach the 5% of GDP that the U.S. requested NATO allies invest in their own defense. “I mean, it takes a lot of money to go give the security, the vital national interest and security of our system, with an armed forces that we need to allow the economic machine of the United States to work most effectively,” he continued. “If there’s any plug that I would give all of you, it’s ‘I need my money,’ OK?”

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  • [–] 37 points 2 days ago (1 child)

    fuck you! you can't know if you're solvent because you've never had an audit! you're a money black hole in peace time! leaving aside the question of what does it even mean for a military to be solvent

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  • [–] 37 points 2 days ago (1 child)

    after all the money that has been lavished on the MIC, every last general and admiral and CEO should be committing seppuku on the Washington Mall out of shame after the (hilarious but) embarrassing shitshow in Iran. we need to bring back shame

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  • [–] 35 points 2 days ago

    Democrats please one time this century do something incredibly cool by refusing to fund this.

    They won't, they never do anything cool. But they could and they absolutely should stonewall this forever

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