A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of the Central Bank of Iran.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preambleThe so-called "Economic D-Day" is set to start this week, which is the term trotted out by the US to describe what it regards as the most crushing sanctions ever unveiled in all of human history against a foreign state. Up to me writing this, nobody appears to have many guesses as to what precisely this would entail, but a confirmed aspect is secondary sanctions - i.e. the sanctioning of any country that does business with Iran. China is Iran's largest trading partner, and has previously explicitly ordered their oil/refining companies to keep receiving and processing Iranian oil regardless of US sanctions. Assuming China maintains this relationship, and the ever-sanctioned Russia does likewise, it's difficult to see how these sanctions could not only 1) be significantly more effective than the current sanctions on Iran, which are very substantial and yet are being successfully sidestepped and mitigated, albeit at a meaningful cost to Iran's citizens, and 2) outright bring Iran to a position of surrender when it is in the midst of an existential war. The only conceivable way would be if the US did genuinely sanction China in response, which even the US, in this phase of baffling idiocy, is not yet so stupid as to attempt. Other suggestions I've seen is that the sanctions aren't so much about trying to keep China away as much as stopping the Gulf states from ever economically, politically, and indeed militarily reconciling with Iran; essentially saying "At the end of this war, you may not be on our side, but you certainly won't be on Iran's either."

Nonetheless, ever since Iran militarily proved themselves back in March and April, and, in particular, their missile cities proved effectively indestructible, I and many others came to the conclusion that the only way to destroy Iran would be some kind of internal political or economic crisis - likely both, going hand-in-hand - and it appears that US war planners now agree. A resumption of missile fire is still plenty possible, mind, but if I was the US, it would be in support of that hypothetical internal crisis, were it ever to start, rather than putting the cart before the horse. Therefore, one does have to take the threat of some kind of overwhelming economic offensive at least a little seriously, simply because it's the only non-nuclear vector left that has even the vaguest possibility of success. From all the analysts I take seriously, I'm getting signals that trend towards optimism that Iran will survive whatever the Bessents of the world can cook up; however, mere survival should not be Iran's medium/long term goal. Imaginary tankers transiting Hormuz notwithstanding, and with global diesel prices now skyrocketing notwithstanding, it's still unclear to me what the end result would be if Iran and the US simply decided to stop fighting from now on and apply maximum sanctions/energy disruption for weeks, months, or even years on end. Would China eventually pressure Iran to make concessions, for example? Could a critical portion of Iran's population, or a segment of the Iranian bourgeoisie, be tempted to try and overthrow the government to end the pain, long before the economy truly internally collapsed?

That's likely why, in response to the proposed sanctions on Iran, there have been signals coming out of the country (as always, hard to verify in the fog of invented/misattributed statements and exaggerations) that Iran could counterstrike by attacking US economic interests in the region - which, if correctly done, sounds much better to me than simply sitting there with thousands of missiles not being fired while you gradually bleed out over the medium term, hoping that the other guy will bleed out first. This would be a pretty profound step for Iran, though. Aside from maintaining the Hormuz blockade, they have always held the (somewhat strategically dubious) "moral high ground" of being the guy to respond to military attacks, perhaps due to an anxiety of being seen as a warmonger either internally or in countries throughout the world, not least their major allies.

So after all that bloviating, I have little more to offer than a shrug in terms of my predictions about what comes next.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] 70 points 2 days ago (2 children)

putin-wink juche-rose https://archive.ph/ZAFzA

First North Korea-Russia road bridge nearly complete, symbolizing new era of military cooperation

The first-ever road bridge linking North Korea and Russia across the Tumen River appears close to completion, according to satellite imagery reviewed by Defense News, though construction on the Russian side lags behind Pyongyang’s finished part. It is a visible manifestation of the two countries’ tightening relationships, driven by Pyongyang’s military support for Russia in its war against Ukraine.

more

Half-meter resolution Planet imagery captured in recent weeks shows the North Korean approach to the bridge fully built, including a customs building and a controlled entry point several hundred meters from the riverbank. Work on the Russian side, by contrast, is still continuing, with construction on border facilities and even the road itself still visibly ongoing. While the footprint for a large customs building and the gravel for a future highway have been laid, at present, the border is still far from opening to commercial traffic on the Russian side. The crossing sits at Tumangang, a longstanding rail hub on the North Korean-Russian border that handled Soviet-era bulk trade before falling largely dormant after 1991. Activity there has picked up sharply since 2022, coinciding with Pyongyang’s decision to supply Moscow with artillery shells and troops for its war in Ukraine, and Russia’s decision to turn a blind eye to the application of UN sanctions against the Kim regime that Moscow had originally helped to put in place. The border between North Korea and Russia is just 17 kilometers, or 11 miles, long, but increasingly geopolitically significant.

“It’s clear that Kim Jong Un has decided, ‘Our way forward is with Russia,’ and this is emergent proof of it,” said John Ford, a research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, who has tracked North Korean infrastructure and arms production for years. Ford noted that Pyongyang had sought a symbolic road bridge at the crossing for decades, only for Moscow to rebuff the idea until the diplomatic fallout from its full-scale invasion of Ukraine reshaped the relationship. According to Ford, in addition to the symbolic value, the bridge may aim to address a persistent bottleneck at Tumangang’s existing rail link, where North Korea’s lack of standardized ISO shipping containers has forced cargo to be transloaded by hand between rail cars − a slow process that has instead pushed much of the ammunition trade through the port of Rason, then by sea to Russia’s Dunai terminal. A functioning road crossing could let trucks bypass that chokepoint, though Ford cautioned it remains unclear whether it would primarily move Russian goods into North Korea, or North Korean goods, including munitions, out.

“The most surprising thing is that it seems functional,” Ford said, pointing to the impractical location of the construction site. It sits far away from any major urban center in Russia’s far east, and even for North Korea, Tumangang is in a remote corner of the country. Existing transport options, primarily by ship from the nearby port of Rason, seem like the obvious choice. He also noted that Russian truckers are unlikely to drive deep into North Korea given the unpredictable and potentially hostile environment, making a river-adjacent transfer point more plausible to him than a true cross-border logistics route. What is for certain, though, is that Russia and the country officially called the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea have moved much closer together on the world stage since Putin’s 2022 decision to invade Ukraine. The two countries signed a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” in 2024, which includes a mutual defense clause committing both countries to defend the other in times of war, and many stipulations for cooperation ranging from nuclear to spaceflight. Ford also pointed to symbolic markers of the deepening alignment, including the restoration of Lenin and Marx portraits at North Korea’s Military Officers Political Academy and Kim’s 2023 visit to Vladivostok, as evidence Pyongyang is betting on a durable partnership with Moscow that could outlast the war in Ukraine. Whether the bridge meaningfully expands cross-border throughput, Ford said, will only become clear once construction wraps and analysts can watch for signs of actual truck traffic.

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  • [–] 44 points 2 days ago (1 child)

    Ford also pointed to symbolic markers of the deepening alignment, including the restoration of Lenin and Marx portraits at North Korea’s Military Officers Political Academy and Kim’s 2023 visit to Vladivostok, as evidence Pyongyang is betting on a durable partnership with Moscow that could outlast the war in Ukraine.

    Westerners continue to belive that Russia is communist lol. Like yeah, I'm sure the reason that the DPRK put up portraits of Marx and Lenin is cuz capitalist Russia loves Marx and Lenin

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