Another shitty aspect of this is that probably a majority of our ability to get a deal done bloodlessly like this is, for better or worse, due to the implicit threat of the massive power imbalance of our militaries. If you are negotiating with someone who is kind and smiling and sincere and they have a squad of fucking jacked dudes armed to the gills standing behind him also smiling.... well negotiating may seem like the preferable thing at that point. And, in this case, the sincere man genuinely agrees to come to an amicable and sustainable solution from that is good for all parties, so it worked out.

But then a petty stupid egotist with a complex about everything the sincere man did comes in an rips up the deal and acts like a lunatic basically no matter what you do. So rather than try to create a bullshit new deal with someone who will only accept absolute capitulation under threat of war, you stand your ground and prepare for war. War comes and... turns out that, at least when this stupid manchild and his idiot crew are in charge, and once they have fired a ton of their non-cis straight white male officers and soldiers, their disorganized and poorly led military is pretty fucking ineffective. They are also extremely easily swayed by financial risks, for oil in particular, and it takes next to nothing for you to leverage your position next to the primary channel for the world's oil shipments to bring that shit to a stand still.

Now you have taken some licks from bombings, and there is still an ever looming threat of nukes. But now you are sitting across from this petty stupid egotist and there doesn't seem to be as overwhelming of a threat there anymore. And now they are coming back at you with deals that are not just that you unconditionally surrender. Now they are desperately offering you control over the shipping channels you only hijacked due to this war they started, a monetary payout, and essentially the same terms otherwise you already had. Fuck man, why the fuck wouldn't you hold out longer and see what else this stupid prick will offer you?

It is absolutely not a good moral stance that we have long decided to negotiate with the world by might and threat. And ends do not justify means. But on the odd occasion, some good did come of it. Whatever hope there ever was of that happening again though... it just got thrown out the window. If Iran can barely inconvenience your oil supply chain and make America roll over, why would anyone sitting across the table ever take that threat seriously again?

My hope is that, if anything good comes from this, it will be that less priority will be put on military power in the future (after we are done with this regime, obviously) as it will no longer be as impactful as it used to be in negotiations. But I am not holding my breath for that.